In the case of the MEP dollar (with G30), the price fell 1.5% (-$3.19) to settle at $213.98. On Friday it had plummeted 3.2% (-$7.09).
The reaching of an agreement with the IMF curbed expectations of a sharp devaluation. It is worth remembering that for two weeks the alternative exchange rates to the official had an escalation that seemed to have no ceiling. In that framework, the CCL closed the first month of 2022 with an accumulated advance of 9.7%, while the MEP showed an increase of 8.5%.
The president of the Central Bank (BCRA), Miguel Pesce, assured that there will not be a devaluation jump as part of the commitments that the country will assume in the framework of the deal for the renegotiation of the debt, something that had already been warned by the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, in his conference of the Friday.
The Government intends to add some US$5 billion to reserves in 2022 and for the exchange rate to be compatible with this new level of reserves. However, it remains to be seen in the letter of intent what will be the way to accumulate those dollars, a challenge that seems difficult given this level of gap and with commodity prices not as high as in 2021.
“Although the announcement of an understanding with the IMF moves us away from an immediate disruptive scenario, even assuming that it materializes in a formal agreement within this quarter, as the details become known we will be able to determine whether the agreed program is achievable or if the difficulty of compliance again raises the risks of deviation from the trajectory”, clarified the consulting firm Ecolatina.
“The next few weeks will be crucial so that the moderate turn that the government intends can be effectively carried out,” he added.
Where the consensus with the Fund does seem to be clearer is on the need to have positive interest rates in real terms. In that sense, the BCRA is analyzing raising nominal rates again.
official dollar
In the wholesale segment, the dollar advanced 18 cents this Monday and closed January at $105.02. In this way, in the month it climbed 2.2%, its biggest advance since March 2021.
The BCRA slightly accelerated the rate of devaluation, although the “crawling peg” continues to run behind inflation that is likely to remain above 3% in the first quarter.
“The principle of agreement also lowers the chances of a discreet jump in the official dollar, where the official idea is to continue accelerating the devaluation so that it at least matches inflation,” said Roberto Geretto of Fundcorp.
Parallel, the monetary authority had to sell u$s130 million in January to supply a demand for foreign exchange pressured by corporate debt payments and by the high level of imports. It was the third consecutive month with a negative balance.
“Expectations for February include a hope of improvement in the income of the agro-export sector and less tension on the market as a result of last Friday’s announcements, as factors that can collaborate with the Central Bank to start a process of accumulation of reserves,” projected a market source.
For its part, the savings dollar or solidarity dollar -retail plus taxes- climbed five cents on this wheel to $182.67. In the month it also increased 2.2%.
The blue dollar bounced 50 cents this Monday, January 31, 2022, after collapsing $10 last Friday in reaction to the announcement of the country’s agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), according to a survey by Ámbito in the Black Foreign Exchange Market.
After starting the wheel down, the informal dollar turned around and amounted to $213. Therefore, the gap with the wholesale exchange rate, which is regulated by the Central Bank, grew slightly to 102.8%.
After the announcement of the agreement with the IMF, the parallel erased in just one day almost the total rise that it had accumulated in the previous 8 days ($11.50).
Starting from the sharp drop on Friday, the informal price reduced its monthly advance to 2.4%, again lower than the monthly rate of inflation.
Source: Ambito
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