In this Decision scenario on portfolio composition, It highlights a recent measure of the government that reinforces uninflationary expectations: the reduction of “1%” crawling “. The Government, and also the market, hopes that in March The price index reaches a monthly increase of 1%in contrast to the 2% range recorded so far. This decision also feeds the expectation of a decrease in interest rate, Scheduled for February, as part of this strategy.
The choice of assets in pesos will depend on whether current market expectations are met around inflation. But, in a context where the fixed rate is the one that channels the greatest demand, is it convenient to bet on cer bonds?
The dynamics of the bonds Cer
The bonds adjusted by CER They won a slight prominence in recent days and record minor increases, although most had the December inflation data in prices. At present, those with longer maturities are offering returns of CER + 6%, 7%and 8%. This option is attractive to conservative investors who They prefer a prudent approach to optimism about the reduction of inflation or, in any case, they seek to diversify the portfolio. In addition, they anticipate that an eventual exit from the exchange rate could generate a leap in the exchange rate, with a potential impact on prices and these titles could be benefited.
In this framework, it can be considered that, If inflation exceeds current market expectations, CER bonds could become more competitive Faced with the instruments at a fixed rate, which today offer returns around 30% (annual nominal rate) for longer maturities.
“These instruments provide coverage in front of an inflationary deceleration less than the one planned by the marketin addition to taking advantage of the lowest interest rates. While the market anticipates year -on -year inflation of 19% by 2025, our projections point to 23%, “they explained from Cohen. In this sense, they recommend focusing on the long section of the CER curve with higher yields, such as the TZXM6 and the TZX27.
Andrés Reschini, F2 Analyst Financial solutions, He commented that after the inflation data, the bond implicit forecasts did not suffer significant changes since then. “It seems to me that it is quite clear that the market continues to prefer fixed rate, even more with the ratification of the Rate after the IPC data that this did surprise the market because a decrease was expected.”
In this sense, he remarked that the market still prefers options with a fixed rate and for that reason the Ministry of Economy launched an “ambitious” exchange of debt in pesos in which it offers dual rate. “Invest or not in cer bonds It will also depend out there on the risk profile. If someone is going to look for positive performance, which still have a positive return rate (IRR) with respect to inflation, and avoid taking risks with a fixed rate, no one can say that it is wrong. Now, if it is intended to have them a short time before the expiration, and there it is preferable to invest at a fixed rate, but hey, that is neither good nor evil, they are different objectives. “
In short, it suggests that today the market prefers with this level of yields and inflation projections, Fixed rate over cer bonds.
A key tender planned for this Friday
The Treasury announced an exchange of 11 instruments, which They add maturities for $ 26 billion (93% in private hands), to be held this Friday, January 24 with liquidation on Wednesday 29. In return, it is offered eleven eligible titles: It’s about EIGHT LECAP (Lyrics at a fixed rate), two bonce (bonds tied to inflation) and a boncap (fixed rate bonus). All of them expiring between May and November of this year.
In return, holders who accept participating in the exchange will receive a basket integrated equally by four bonds with dual rate (The greatest between what they throw fixed rate included in the operation and the rate variable Tamar, published by the Central Bank) that will overcome March 16, 2026, on June 30, 2026, on September 15, 2026 and December 15, 2026.
It is important to highlight that the bonds to be delivered will be valued at a market price determined by the Treasury. On this occasion, Economy offers an award. According to Cohen, the prices established by the Treasury for the instruments offered are 0.5% above the market and the minimum fixed rates of the duals, exceed market rates for comparable instruments. In this sense, the last report of ADCAP Financial Group, argues that effective monthly rates for duals range between 2.14% and 2.25%.
In this sense, the ALYC highlights: “Given the constant demand for instruments at a fixed rate, we anticipate a strong interest in the dual basket. This initiative is part of the government’s strategy to extend the performance curve of the weight beyond a year, addressing the limited demand for bonce bonds at recent auctions. “
Finally they pointed out that, linked to the CER instruments, Recent tenders showed a “limited” interest in investors in these titles. To which Gabriel Camañoeconomist of the Outlier consultant, adds that these instruments, however, can walk well in the tender, “because they find it interesting to the Banks that have many LECAP to cover their rate of rate. “
Source: Ambito
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