The market demands solid results: large technological ones present balances and define their future

The Balances and Deepseek under the city’s magnifying glass

As he explains Paulino SeoaneHead Investment Ideas in Capital Balanz– In statements to Scope– The expectations about the reports of these companies “are very high.” It happens that the market is with high multiples and it is necessary that these companies validate this price level with balances consistent, since if not, and given the current context where it is questioned US supremacy in such a sensitive field Like AI, there could be an important correction about these companies.

However, Seone estimates that “it is very soon” to draw conclusions on the impact of Deepseek In companies of Wall Street. Although it slides that “at the global level a Ia cheap and accessible that a very expensive and monopoly” This is because the AI ​​is composed of more training engines and inference tools and, “the owners of the data are always in a better relative position.”

Meanwhile, Diego Ilan MéndezTeam Leader of Corporate Credits in Personal investment portfolio (Ppi) -Stage in statements to this medium- and in line with Seoane that, there is a reality and that “the”Seven magnificent“They have been” trading too high multiples. “A issue of debate, since these ratios imply aggressive growths in a sustained way, which, given the scales of these companies,” “is increasingly complicated”

The strategist comments that, personally, he does not feel comfortable with valuations like those held by the “G7 Techno”To recommend them as an investment opportunity, although it admits that with the scare of Monday the market prices of these companies settled a little.

Goal, Microsoft and Depseek’s impact

However, for Ilan Méndez, “saying that you don’t have to have a position in Big Tech is a kind of suicide.” He remembers that the situation was similar during the last two years and the market already witnessed the more those companies could grow. “Any Asset Manager that has avoided exposure to these companies today is unemployed,” he says.

And for example while the technological actions of Wall Street They lost almost $ 1 billion on Mondaythe Facebook (Meta) parent company saw how its papers remained Immune To the Chinese Batacaz (Calls).

Therefore, Meta strength contrasts with Microsoftwhose actions faltered due to concerns about the high expense in AI, including their participation in OpenAIa direct deepseek competitor.

It also happens that goal has been the best performance between The “Magnificent Seven” In January, it accumulates an increase that approaches the 16% and is on its way to its greatest monthly gain since February (2024). Microsoft, on the other hand, climbed just 6% so far this year and only increased 12% in 2024. On Tuesday, the goal shares rose a 3%which configured its seventh positive session to the thread, while Microsoft those advanced a 2.8%.

Both companies highlighted their commitment to expenditure in AI. Goal announced last Friday that plans to invest up to US $65,000 million In developments in 2025, much more than expected. For its part, Microsoft plans to spend U $ 80,000 million In this fiscal year.

And this is where you have to remember that Microsoft’s last two balances disappointed Wall Streetand its expense is the subject of scrutiny, particularly given the indications that its services of They do not traction as expected. In contrast, Meta reported in the last quarter that AI has “a positive impact on almost all aspects of her work”, which contributes to the perception that its increase in spending is a sample of confidence in its own strategy.

Thus, goal is stronger both in impulse and foundations against Microsoft. Nevertheless, the way in which many of these actions were valuedthey were shaken with the appearance in the radar of Deepseek And while the mass sale of Monday could be an exaggerated reaction, the expense in AI is key, and Chinese development could mean a complete change in how investors will now evaluate the efficiency of said expense.

Yields: the strategy recommended by experts

For Ilan Méndez, given the current context, we must seek exposure to companies seen as “Value Investing“, which will have more conservative valuation ratios.” For that, the new issuance of Cedears de Comafi is also useful, “he analyzes,” it can be invested in the ETF ISHARES S&P 500 VALUE (IVE) to obtain exposure to a conglomerate of these companies. ”

The truth is that, in the last two years, companies “Growth“They surpassed the”value“For a wide margin -the biggest difference in two years from history -and could wait for a return to average. As a reference, the last time the ratio Growth/Value He was at these levels in 2000, prior to “CRASH DOTCOM“

For its part Flavio CastroAsset Management of Criteriaremember that at the end of 2024, the ETF Schwab Us Large Cap Growth, which follows high capitalization and growth companies, obtained a return from 140% in five years and of 37% in the last one, which exposes The strength of large technological companies.

“By 2025, these firms are expected to maintain leadership in the markets,” says Castro. In contrast, small capitalization companies, measured by the ETF Russell 2000, They expose more modest yields: 6% in 2024 and less than 30% in five yearswith sectors such as El Financiero (30%) and Real Estate (10%) offered by few value opportunities.

For Castro, the gap between large and small businesses It seems difficult to closeunless the growth of “megacaps” slows down, “which is unlikely in the long term.” In addition, he maintains that Artificial intelligence It is emerging as a key engine for the economy of the next decade.

Therefore, the criteria strategist is decisive at the conclusion that it is unlikely that large growth companies replicate the extraordinary performance of 2024 or at least, “”in the same magnitude” However, it considers that it is a challenge to find value outside the main companies in that sector, “which stand out for their ability to generate important cash flows and maintain solid financial positions.” In this context, Castro maintains an optimistic approach to the results of NVIDIA (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (Goog) for 2025.