Cambiary backwardness: the government denies it, but two key consultants list a signal of a backward dollar

For the president Javier Mileieconomists who warn for a backward exchange rate They repeat a speech as “scratched album.” For the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, the dollar is not late, but prices are advanced. It is not clear that the market understands the same. Two Of the main consultants read La City, they raise three arguments each to affirm, exactly, contrary.

The debate on exchange policy and its sustainability is intensified for these hours. Thus, on Thursday, the representative of the economic portfolio He took care of denying In an interview Televisa such as “exchange delay”, understood as the main criticism of his model. On Friday, Milei himself did the same in a written column dedicated to the subject.

Combining a series of arguments and disqualifications, The president faced his position in favor of the value of the dollar in a decisive way: Economists who talk about exchange backwardness, only have a scratched album.

The question is in itself the market takes as valid the arguments of Milei and Caputo to validate their statements, because it also has its own for express warnings in this regard.

The first consultant, PXQyour analysis begins by holding that Indeed, the degree of economic opening of the current management is greater than that observed in 2023. This greater competition took place thanks to a set of tariff measures, paracelaries and elimination of restrictions on foreign trade, such as elimination of the sirs, shortening of import payments, expansion of the Courier model, reduction of tariffs, among others.

However, according to a survey made by Emmanuel Alvarez Agis, in October of 2023 A food basket on drinks bought in Argentina was 57% cheaper that the same basket bought in the rest of the countries. In December 2024, That same basket was 13% more expensive.

In turn, he appeals to an argument “that does not have too much technical grip”, but understood in the popular imaginary: greedy or voracious businessmen that increase discretionally thanks to the maintenance of protectionist measures in the economy.

“Giving the right to the argument, in a year of a deep recession, by the ‘greatest fiscal adjustment in the history of humanity’ and with a more open economy, It is not possible to think that entrepreneurs have been able to increase their level of ‘greed’ or ‘voracity’ “”says the text.

Finally, and in line with the increase in the food basket, recalls the recent publication of the “Big Mac Index”From the specialized magazine The Economist, which Indicates that Argentina has the second most expensive Big Mac in the world.

As can be seen, explains PXQ, the Argentine economy is going through a scenario of greater openness, the entrepreneurs are more threatened by competition and, thus and everything, products in the local market are more expensive than in the international. “Conclusion: prices were not advanced, the exchange rate was delayed”Explains the consultant.

For its part, the 1816 consultancy was also made of three arguments to seek whether or not the exchange rate is late.

The first has to do with the fact that December was the Seventh consecutive month deficit month. In the accumulated balance of negative in – U $ S 75 billionalthough it becomes positive at $ 2500 million if it is adjusted by the blend, because in this item of the exchange balance the expenses of cards canceled per dollar mep are included.

On the other hand, The balance of dollar loans exceeded historical maximums in Januaryand with a seasonality “stronger than common”, so the output of foreign exchange for tourism “would have grown impressive in the first month of the year,” says the consultant, especially because the expenditure of Argentines abroad reached one of its highest levels in history with a Salary in dollars “Far from records”.

As a last point, the consulting firm 1816 ensures that if in the first months of government the dollar purchases of the BCRA were explained by the calendarization of imports, From August to this part “100% of the Central’s buyer balance in the Mulc is explained by local loans in dollars, which are settled in the official FX”. The stock of loans to dollars in dollars reached US $ 12,743 million on January 31, versus $ 10,854 million on December 30.

The debate among economists is still open. The Government promotes its closureensuring that the exchange policy leads along the right path, to the point such that both Caputo and Milei publicly rejected a devaluation as an inevitable destination.

The difference between them is the search for the guarantee of trust by the market and the endorsement of a central actor, who until now lacks details in this regard: The International Monetary Fund.