A report revealed that the worsening of financial conditions was due to decrease in dollar deposits. In turn, the work revealed that loans are growing faster than deposits.
The financial conditions index (ICF) showed a 7.9 points drop in January (92 units was located)cutting with a positive streak of four months that began in September with laundering, according to a report of the Argentine Institute of Finance Executives (IAEF), with collaboration with Econviews.
Private deposits in dollarswhich fell from $ 34,000 million in November au $ 31,000 million at the end of January, were the variable with the greatest negative incidence.
So, Local financial conditions dropped 12 points. “Almost all the fall was due to the deposits in dollars. There was also a determination in the short and long term liquidity, but it occurs because Loans are growing faster than deposits“They explained.
The best performance local variables were the monthly nucleus inflationwhich was moderated in January after the seasonal peak of December, the actions and the country risk. In this regard they stated that, in recent daysMerval fell to 2,000 dollars and the EMBI climbed back to 660 points. As the ICF measures monthly averages, this deterioration will be seen in the February index.
Rate, IMF and CEPO
After the IPC of December, The BCRA announced that in February the devaluation of the official exchange rate of 2 to 1% monthly. And on Thursday, January 30, cut the interest rate of 32 to 29% TNA, which gives a monthly rate of 2.4%, in line with inflation.
“The countercara of this strategy is that offering neutral yields in pesos is only possible with stock: with free flotation the real rate should be positive. The exchange gap continued in 13% in January. Other emerging currencies such as Chilean weight or the Brazilian real were appreciated after Trump was back with tariff threats, “they recalled from Econviews.
Local conditions are mostly positive
8 of 10 variables were maintained in a comfort zone, that is, above their historical average 2005-2025, in January. Above all, Merval stands out and the deposits in dollars, beyond the fall of recent months, which are at maximum in absolute terms.
The two variables that follow in a moderate stress zone are the long -term liquidity and the interest rate (Badlar), although it can improve with the cut of 32 to 29% TNA at the end of January. “We expect at least one more decline, of a similar magnitude, before the elections,” they explained.
Source: Ambito
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