Despite a rebound of 4.5% in US actions this year, the strategists of Citigroup Inc. They warn that derived risks of the president’s policy proposals Donald Trump They could stop any additional advance in the market.
According to the team of analysts led by Scott Chronet, although investors are betting that Trump’s “first” America “policies will have a pro -business impact, the possible disruptive effects of these policies in economic foundations have not yet been completely discounted.
“The market It does not completely reflect the possible disruptions of policies related to Trump’s protectionist agenda”, Said the strategists in a recent note. Despite not modifying its long -term perspectives, the Citigroup team contemplates a risk of falling in the short and medium term, challenging the expectations of sustained growth based on the effects of the president’s policies.
After an increase of more than 20% in 2024, US actions have been left behind compared to their global peers in 2025. Investors fear that Trump’s protectionist policies and their proposals to impose import tariffs, which affect key sectors such as cars , semiconductors, and pharmaceutical products, can envive inflation and negatively affect the economic panorama.
In addition, the growing concern about the overvaluation of great technological ones, COMO Apple, Tesla and Microsoft, has complicated the panorama for investors. While some giants, such as Meta and Nvidia, continue to move forward, the contribution of these “Magnificent Seven” to the growth of profits has been slowed since the late 2023. This dynamic underlines the vulnerability of a highly dependent market of a few dominant actors.
Chronet, who succeeded with his optimistic prognosis last year, states that the impulse must now come from other companies within the S&P 500 index. Although there are signs that the rebound could extend to other large capitalizations, this phenomenon has been limited so far to A few large companies.
With an objective of 6,500 points for the S&P 500 index by the end of the year, which would imply a 6% growth from the recent closure, Chronet argues that the market could face more difficulties than the anticipated if the political risks and the valuations of the Large technology continue to weigh on global performance.
Internal market deterioration: a silent threat
On the other hand, a new concern has begun to emerge: the growing number of non -profitable companies. Finomial data, a Fintech company, reveal that currently 12% of large capitalization companies and 32% of small capitalization are not profitable, despite the fact that the US economy is located in its 16th year of expansion. This trend shows a growing internal fragility in a market that, despite high surface yields, begins to show signs of wear.
Small capitalizations seem to be the most affected by this phenomenon, while large corporations continue to dominate the market, with a more consistent profitability. However, experts warn that excessive dependence on a few technological giants could leave the market vulnerable if several of these actors fall simultaneously.
The US shares market seems to be at a crossroads: while some sectors continue to grow, internal threats and political risks could quickly change the course of the current trend. The coming months will be crucial to determine whether the solid performance of large companies is sustainable or if internal fragility will become an insurmountable obstacle.
Source: Ambito
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