He European panorama It became a scenario of contrasts and opportunities in the midst of global uncertainty. The recent results campaign, together with the hope of a peace that mitigates the crisis in Ukraine and the expectations that interest rates continue to fall, allows the variable income in the old continent to recover in front of the protectionist threats emanating from states from states Joined.
In this context, the high valuations accumulated by US companies and the irruption of disruptive factors such as Deepseek have favored the transfer of capital flows since Wall Street towards European indices. While investors undone their positions in US shares, they increased their exposure to European titles, promoting indices such as the German Dax and Stoxx 600 to reach new records.
Likewise, markets such as IBEX 35 and the Euro Stoxx 50 have returned to historical maximum a benefit taking before an increasingly complex environment.
Geopolitical and fiscal policy perspective
The situation in Germany adds an additional layer of uncertainty. The elections in the German country, marked by the rise of the extreme right as the second most voted force, generate expectations that the new government promotes necessary reforms to resume growth, despite the current recession that affects European power for two years.
Analysts see with good eyes the possibility that a fiscal stimulus is implemented and the debt roof is raised, although the political fragmentation and the demand of a qualified majority hinder these scenarios. On the other hand, the persistence in economic weakness has not prevented the German debt market from still showing solidity, evidenced by long -term bonds that remain at attractive levels.
Simultaneously, the geopolitical environment is marked by peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and the continuous tariff threats of the Trump administration, which uses tariffs as a pressure instrument. Although there is a manifest interest in reaching agreements in Eastern Europe, advances have been slow, which could make initial optimism give a more pragmatic vision of the vulnerabilities facing Europe.
Business results and macroeconomic data
In the corporate field, the results season and the repurchase programs have contributed an additional impulse to the European Stock Exchange. The data has shown moderate growth of 1% in the annual profits of European companies, in contrast to the 1.3% contraction provided by some analysts.
Nvidia, the company that is marking trend in the markets, will present its results this Wednesday at the close of Wall Street. The firm has seen its value by 14% from the annual minimums reached after the emergence of Deepseek. However, despite this recovery, the price of its shares remains 10% below its historical maximums.
During September and last November, investors chose to ensure profits. This behavior is explained by more moderate growth forecasts and margins somewhat lower than usual. According to the estimates of the analyst firms, a 72% increase in income for the fourth quarter and a 62% growth in the benefit per share is expected.
On the other hand, the evolution of prices and the response of interest rates to the slowdown in inflation continue to be central issues. Although the price indices have left behind levels close to 10% observed after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the resistance to lower to 2% and the next figures of the Personal Expenditure Price Index (PCE) keep the markets
In the Eurozone, while some sectors glimpse the possibility of lower interest rates, there is also a growing internal debate, with critical voices that suggest that a break could approach in the aggressive reduction of types.
Source: Ambito
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