The FCI in full transformation: where the flows go and which offer greater yields

With a strong inflationary spiral in recent years, Common investment funds had become the stars in the market to provide juicy yields and diversified investment options and easily accessible; However, with a already marked disinflation processinterest rates and goals still to be fulfilled by the government, such as The elimination of exchange ratethis industry is in full transition process.

In this context, from the sector they argue that it is expected that The flow to the common investment fund industry is “something ambiguous and crossed”. “They will be, on the one hand, those who take advantage of greater freedom in the exchange and specifically capital account, to make use of their current investments in funds. While, on the other hand, Those who begin to have greater income in their businesses will appear from a growth of the economy and a potential increase in foreign direct investmentwhich is currently very low, “they said from Max Capitalin dialogue with Scope.

For the long term, the industry avizora a promising future if it materializes The expected expansion of credit to the private sector. Although they warn that the yields of the previous years will not be repeated again, from this broker argued that, even with this new nominality, while The BCRA continues its position to maintain a high real interest rate in pesos“There will continue to be the attractiveness for investors to obtain yields that exceed future inflation.”

Bonuses, Fees and Dollar: Perspectives

In turn, Agustín Giannattasio, Portfolio Manager in Balanz, said that The market is discounting in the bond prices a downward inflation for both this year and 2026, in coincidence with the projections of private consultants published by the BCRA in the REM. In this regard, he mentioned that “Breakeven inflation, that is, The point where it would be indistinct to have a bonus that adjusts by CER or one fixed rate, is 20% for 2025 and 16% for 2026 “.

With regard to fees movements, he explained what, according to his analysis, As long as the stocks are maintained and with inflation that continues on a descending path, new losses of interest rate could be expected in the future. “This can also be seen in the value of the optional tamar rate in the dual bonds, to which the market gives them a slight differential with respect to the fixed rate bonds,” he said.

Experts also argue that from the analysis of the prices of future dollar contracts it can be deduced that investors They are willing to pay a cost of 0.8% monthly above the depreciation rate to be covered against dollar fluctuations for deadlines prior to legislative elections. Therefore they explained that a downward trend in the interest rate of the economy could also lead to A reduction of futures and a lower coverage cost above the “crawling peg”.

Flows and yields: What left the FCI industry in pesos in February

February It is headed for a month with High volatility. “Specifically, the performances of the portfolio assets were presented at the beginning of the month, but The photo today shows lean returns“He said to Scope Valentina Heredia, PPI fund analyst. Thus, from this broker they contributed that FCI FIXED INCOME T+0 (LECAPS) advance 1.5%, those of short term 1.2% and Discretionary 1%. Between coverage, Dollar Linked 0.5% rise and Cer They are placed behind with 0.3%.

Regarding the analysis of Money Market fundsthose who are behind the yields of virtual wallets, it is important to remember that they had an incidence of last cut of the monetary policy rate. It should be noted that on January 31 the Central Bank (BCRA) dropped it from 32% to 29% TNA. “This had incidents in the returns of the Money Market options, and they currently mark around 25% -with some marking 23.5% -. And, although the preference for liquidity is maintained – with the mm adding almost 1 billion pesos so far this month – the fixed income strategies capture the interest of investors “Heredia explained.

As for the flows, the expert contributed: “Although this type of strategies add market risk in its portfolio – by the assets that compose it – and have a greater potential volatility, The short -term fixed income adds about $ 200,000 million and the T+0 funds (LECAPS) another $ 33,100 million. While, among the coverage funds, in the face of a scenario of low devaluative expectations, The Linked dollar lose around $ 24,000 million in the month. For its side, The CER also mark in red with around $ 14,000 million. “

In turn, Giannattasio He added: “So far this month, Money Market, LECAPS and short -term pesos funds increased their assets due to net subscriptions by 1%, 4% and 4% respectiveE, despite the decline in the reference interest rate at the beginning of the month and the successive tenders by the treasure. In the universe of funds in pesos, the kind of funds that dominate the scene continue to be the money markets, the LECAPS funds and the short -term funds with rescue the next day called in the jarga t+1 “.

Finally, he explained that The FCI LECAPS, Fixed Income, Variable Rate (Badlar/Tamar)which are short -term funds in pesos, “They will continue to be a great alternative to focus transactional money.”

“In the current context of uncertainty, the placements in pesos with greater duration have lost attractive. Investors expect the opportunity to reinvest the maturities of the LECAP short at rates not less than 2.5% TEM, which was reflected in the prize paid during the roll of Tuesday’s tender. During the week, the continuous fixed rate curve correcting from the June-25 onwards section. This caused bailouts in fixed income funds in pesos; both in Lecaps and Cer. In terms of flow ScopeAlex Mateo Zarate from Grupo IEB.

FCI in dollars: how was its performance since they went on the market

According to Balanzthese FCI almost doubled their weight in the industry compared to a year ago, since they rose from 6% to 10% of the total assets of the industry, in the order of US $ 5.3 billion. “The flow to these funds intensified from October last year when laundering began, where the Money Markets in dollars, the corporate bond funds in dollars and LATAM were the stars,” he said, “he said Giannattasio.

“We believe that this kind of funds will continue to be an attractive option to take performance to dollars, since with the United States inflation in the order of 2.5%/3%, the dollars that are not invested, are devalued,”added the expert.

For his part, Zárate contributed: “Fixed income funds in dollars registered positive net income. In particular, the Corporate Occupational Income Category Sumo $ 14,892 million in the last seven days, while the Fixed Turs of short term accumulation $ 47,837 million and the Fixed Income Funds Global, including Argentina, incorporated $ 10,679 million. This movement responds, in part, to the use of the decline in the exchange level of 0.8 to 0.2, which impuls the rise in cable dollars. “