“The market hopes that at some point there will be a exchange correction. However, the most important changes will arrive after the October elections,” said the economist.
The director and chief economist of the Fiel Consultant, Juan Luis Bour, analyzed Argentina’s exchange stage and projected an exchange rate adjustment towards the end of 2025. According to the specialist, the correction could range between 10% and 15%, with an official dollar estimated at US $ 1,200.
Bour explained that the exchange market is still completely free due to the constant intervention of the Central Bank and the lack of sufficient reserves. In this context, he stressed that the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is key to improving the position of monetary authority, although he warned that he does not solve the structural problems of the Argentine economy.
“The market hopes that at some point there will be a exchange correction. However, the most important changes will arrive after the October elections”said the economist.
The correction of the exchange rate and the price of the dollar
Bour estimated that the exit of the exchange rate and market unification could lead to a moderate rise in the official dollar. “We are not talking about alarming figures, but certainly a correction from 10% to 15% is missing,” he said. According to its projections, the official dollar could be located around US $1200 at the end of 2025, while the market speculates with a value close to US $ 1,300.
For its part, the economist Miguel Kiguel He also referred to the possible value of the dollar after the unification of the exchange market. “The Government already announced that it will eliminate the stock before the end of the year. While no one can predict exactly where the dollar will be, a 15% devaluation would take the price to about US $1200, which would not be a bad scenario,” Kiguel analyzed.
Market expectations and transient measures
In a dialogue with Radio Rivadavia, Bour indicated that Javier Milei’s government is taking transitory measures to strengthen the position of the Central Bank and approach a definitive solution before the end of the year. “The objective is to move towards a scheme in which everything is liquidated in the official market, eliminating the Blend dollar,” he explained.
With an attentive market for the next economic policy decisions, expectations about the exchange rate continue to mark the financial agenda. The exchange correction, according to experts, seems inevitable, although its magnitude will depend on the measures implemented by the Government in the coming months.
Source: Ambito
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