Dollar, stock and interest rates: Guru de la City drew what comes after the agreement with the IMF

President Donald Trump does not stop distrusting distrust in the markets, the tariff novel takes unimaginable trim, and moves the chips permanently, putting, taking, reducing and postponing tariffs that make a great contribution to general confusion. Recall that they are not tariffs only as Mexico and Canada, it already has a tax-aroncels to the Chinese economy, and goes for new tariffs to the European Union, without ruling out other regions of the planet and/or solar system.

This has generated a devaluation of the dollar worldwide, and the euro already quotes around 1.09 when a few days ago it quoted 1.03. The devaluation of the dollar worldwide is very good news for our economy. If the dollar is devalued against the euro, that means that our currency also does. This implies that we will have products that will be able to compete in Europe with better prices, on the other hand, for travelers, it is recommended to travel to Europe as soon as possible, a revaluation of the euro will make it very expensive to travel to Madrid, and very cheap Miami.

In Argentina, the IMF novel began, the first act with a request for authorization from the Executive Power to Congress to negotiate the agreement. A second act will be the negotiation, and a third act the signing of the agreement in the spring of the Boreal Hemisphere, in the third week of April, within the framework of the IMF Assembly in the city of Washington.

The agreement would bring with it a disbursement of funds greater than US $ 15,000 million, which would be made in several disbursements, and whose main goal to monitor would be the stock of reserves.

The IMF does not want to put dollars and take them the market, so partial disbursements will be made, with quarterly monitoring, where the new disbursements will be evaluated. This means that the leaving of the stocks will not be immediate.

In this context, the Government will seek to capitalize on the Central Bank Argentina Republic (BCRA), this implies that IMF funds arrive at the Treasury, and automatically buy debt to the BCRA to transform the ilíchid asset of public titles into a liquid asset of dollars in the reservations account.

In this context during the year 2025, BCRA reserves should climb until they reach the sum of the US $ 50,000 million, a very ambitious figure, but not disposable if the government complies with its monetary and exchange plan.

The government since he assumed has few reservations, the forced question is how do you have to have the dollar under control? First, there is an stock that does not allow you to buy all the dollars you want; Second, 20% of exports are settled in alternative dollar markets; Third, the government intervenes in the market when it believes it convenient; And fourth, he contracted the amount of pesos in the economy in the middle of the average of other times, in case this was not enough, the interest rate is enormously positive.

The effective tamar rate of fixed term for placations greater than one billion pesos is located in 35% per year; A LECAP within 86 days yields an internal rate of 36% annual, the inflation rate at 12 months is at 20% per year. This implies that we are in a market that we have positive rates for large 30 -day placement of 12.5% ​​per year, and for placing from small to 90 days of term from 13.3% above the inflation rate.

These positive rates will cause the bonds in pesos adjusted by Cer to fall, since in the short term better rates are achieved than long term, on the other hand, dual boncap validates snows of real rates superior to bonds such as Tx26 or DICP that are bonds in pesos adjusted by inflation.

The negative countercara of the high rates for savers, are high rates for fundrays, a first -line loan is at a rate tamar plus a rate that goes from 6% to 8% according to the entity. This implies that a financing rate for medium and large companies is around 42% per year, an suffocating rate, since you end up paying 18.3% above inflation. There are not many companies that have these profitability rates in a year, which forces companies to work with their own capital, which precipitates the sale of dollars in the market.

The divergence of fees between dollars and pesos is very remarkable, a dollar rate is between 8.0% and 9.0% per year, if we estimate a devaluation rate of 12.7% annual, we would have a rate in pesos of 22.0% per year. This causes many companies to obtain for dollar credits, which in the market are liquidated in pesos, and thus increase the reserves of the Central Bank.

As of August 31, 2024 the dollar loans were $ 7,086 million and as of February 28, 2025 US $ 13,904 million, this implied a rise of US $ 6,818 million, in those 6 months the BCRA bought US $ 7,513 million. This implies that the main source of purchases of the BCRA are the loans in dollars of the financial system. In the same period, the reserves went from US $ 26,719 million to US $ 28,586 million, the rise was very small since public debt had to be canceled, from amortization to interest, since we do not have access to the voluntary credit markets, in the interim the BCRA achievement to place a financing operation, through the purchase sale of bonds for US $ 1,000 million.

Conclusions

. – The Government will reach an agreement with the IMF, it will receive disbursements, it will seek in the year 2025 to increase the stock of reserves to exit the stocks in the year 2026.

. – To increase reservations, it will maintain a wide frozen monetary base in the $ 47.7 billion, therefore, we will have to live with great market illiquidity, interest rates in high pesos, and a consumption that will be resentful of not having financing at reasonable rates.

. – High rates will force companies to finance with their own capital, the dollar will remain offered.

. – The best investment passes through the letters (LECAPS) and capitalizable bonds (Boncaps or dual), especially dual capitalizable bonds (adjust for a fixed rate of 2.25% monthly or tamar rate which was the largest)

. – If there is agreement with the IMF, the country risk should fall to the area of ​​450 – 500 points, if the stock is lifted the objective will be in the 350 – 400 points. Good time to have sovereign bonds in dollars.

. – The actions should arbitrate the rise, but you have to be very selective depending on the balance sheets, there is value in local companies.

. – Internationally, it is very attractive to be euros and invest in the Brazilian stock market. The American bag will continue with high volatility to the compass of the decisions made by President Donad Trump.

. – We do not see risks of a devaluation of the weight, quite the opposite, the government takes all the measures pointing to a greater dollarization of the economy, and announces it as a currency competition.