From Barclays they warn that, although a recession in 2025 remains an “unlikely, but not unthinkable” scenario, consumption appears as the most fragile link in the economy.
The Risk Indicators in the US touched annual maximums This Monday, reflecting the growing concern of investors for the course of the economy Given the impact of tariffs and cuts in the public sector.
In a context of uncertainty, several companies with investment grade They chose not to broadcast bonds At the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, the index Markit CDX North American Investment Grade He advanced 2.06 basic points up to 53.54, its highest level of 2025, indicating a deterioration in the perception of credit risk.
On the other hand, the index Markit CDX North American High Yieldwhich moves in reverse, fell 0.5 points to 106.4, the lowest level in six months.
Global bags began the week with strong falls, beaten by uncertainty around the US economy. The Nasdaq 100 already entered the correction territory on Friday, after a mixed employment report that failed to dissipate market fears.
From Barclays They warn that, although A recession in 2025 is still an “unlikely, but not unthinkable” scenario, Consumption appears as the most fragile link in the economy.
“We observe a significant setback in spending, driven by uncertainty about tariffs, layoffs and the weakness of the variable income, which represents a risk of queue not less,” They pointed out the Bradley Rogoff and Dominique Toublan strategists in a recent report.
Source: Ambito
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