The S&P Merval in dollars collapsed more 26% in just two months: buy or look from the outside?

On January 9, S&P Merval in dollars broke its historical record by marking 2,388 points, but from that maximum, collapsed and, in just over two months, already accumulates a decline of 26.3% in hard currency. To local factors, such as the delay in realizing a new agreement with the IMF, along with the uncertainty that still generates the date of exit of the exchange ratethey were added International negative factors since, with the arrival to the presidency of Donald Trump and his tariff policy, there were A wave of sales in the global variable and an escape towards shelter assets.

S&P Merval in dollars: Was the floor touched or will the fall continue?

From Delphos Investment detailed that although pessimism in international markets had a direct impact on Argentine actions, they consider that Fundamentals should act as a floor for several assets.

“The multiples of many companies are at levels that we could consider normal compared to companies from similar countries, which suggests that They continue undervalued If you take into account the deep change in the macroeconomic context and the potential of certain sectors, such as the oil company, driven by the development of Vaca Muerta, “they expanded.

On the other hand, they also highlighted that The actions were coupled to the performance of hard-DOLOL bonds. In this regard, they stressed that during 2024, S&P Merval and global bonds “showed even performance, A correlation that broke in November when the Equity accelerated his rally while fixed income moderated his rhythm“However, on Monday the performance accumulated since January 2024 in shares was below the Global 2035, something that was not seen since October last year.

In addition, they stressed that “although in moments of high volatility it is not advisable It could be a good entrance point to add positions with a medium/long term visionbeyond that Timing is not necessarily the ideal for short -term trading strategies.

From Insider Finance They also asked if this bearish rally is an entrance opportunity and, in this regard, they replied: “We recommend moving with A positioning of portfolios in Argentine shares gradually, between March and MayWaiting for the arrival of ads that enhance the current stable macro scenario: according to the IMF, launch of the labor reform and modification of the Tax Law. “

For these experts, the last “drivers” that are part of the second stage of reforms proposed by Javier Milei in campaign, would be the Two “key” factors for the S&P Merval to reach new records.

“Fundamental” vs. Context: What weighs the most?

According to a report from Cluster IEBthe tensions generated by Trump’s tariff measures, together with other initiatives of their administration, continue to generate A challenging environment For the Global Variable Income The concerns caused by the impact that they would have on the global growth and stability of the American economy in the short term.

Despite this, from IEB they continue being “optimistic” About him “Equity” Local, and the basis for this analysis is that the balance sheets of Argentine companies showed a recovery compared to previous years.

This situation was observed mainly in companies whose businesses are within the regulated sector, such as Central Puerto (CEPU), South Gas Transporter (TGSU2), Gas Transporter del Norte (TGNO4), Pampa Energy (Pamp) and gas distributors (Metr, DGCE, DGCU2, ECOG, GBAN and CGPA2) or of electricity, as a passener (Tran). These companies benefited from the row rise in public services.