The traditional Precious Metal Price Survey of the LBMA for 2025 confirmed, on the one hand, the Optimism for the case of gold and silverand they were less encouraging both for the Platinum as for the paladium. Let’s look at each case.
Perspectives for gold
Regarding the perspectives of gold, projections mark bullish prices, predicting that it will exceed 2024 with an average price of US $ 2,736 (14.7% higher than the average price by 2024, US $ 2,386), and only US $ 51 lower than the record price of gold by 2024 (US $ 2,789). However, a wide range of negotiation of forecasts indicates that analysts expect a significant pricing volatility.
In addition, no analyst predicted an average price above US $ 3,000, but 20 analysts see a high price of US $ 3,000 or more. It stands out among the most optimistic, Keisuke Okui of Sumitomo that forecasts an average price of US $ 2.925, and among the most bearish, Robin Bhar of RB Metals Consulting with an average forecast of US $ 2,500.
Perspectives for silver
Perspectives for silver indicate that analysts expect that The metal follows the golden path this yearwith an average expected price of $ 32.86, 16% more than the real average price in 2024. The most optimistic analyst was Nicky Shiels of Mks Pamp with an average forecast of $ 36.50, and the most bassist Nicholas Frapp of ABC Refinery with $ 28.25.
Perspectives for platinum
As for the platinum, the forecasts reveal low expectations, with an average price provided by analysts of US $ 1,021.64, only 65 dollars more than the real average price of 2024, which reveals a bearish feeling similar to that planned for last year. The most optimistic turned out to be Julia Du of the ICBC Standard Bank and Joni Teves of the UBS, both with an average of $ 1,100, while the most bassist was Kieran Tompkins of Capital Economics with 920 dollars.
Perspectives for the paladium
On the side of the paladium, analysts reflect concerns about the excess supply and the weak growth of metal demand, with an average prognosis of US $ 991, just above the real average of 2024 of US $ 983, which in itself was a great drop in the average price of 2023 of US $ 1,337.4. The most optimistic analyst was Joni Teves (UBS) with an average prognosis of US $ 1,090 and the most peer Rhona O’Connell of Stonex Financial with an average forecast of US $ 906.
The three “drivers” drivers of gold
The Federal Reserve Policy (Fed)
When identifying the main drivers of the price of gold in 2025, the analysts surveyed indicated how the three factors Calves to the Federal Reserve Policy (Fed) (28%), then to the demand for central banking (21%) and finally to the geopolitical risks/uncertainty (15%).
According to analysts, The activity of the Fed in 2025 could be the key to the fate of gold: If the Fed increases interest rates, this could exert a downward pressure on gold prices; on the other hand, If the rates are reduced or if the Fed maintains a moderate posture to support economic growth, it could make gold more attractive as an alternative investment, which could boost upward prices.
In addition, if the Fed gives signs of concern about the increase in inflation and takes measures to combat it, gold prices could rise as investors seek protection against currency devaluation; But if Fed policies are perceived as too lax and inflation expectations, gold can also benefit.
What did the main forecasting say? Chantelle Schieven de Capitalight Research, one of the most optimistic analysts in terms of gold, with the third highest average forecast by 2025 of US $ 2,875 said that many of the same factors that promoted the price of rising gold in 2025 will probably also be positive for gold in 2025. While Nicky Shiel Shiels of MKS Pamp, whose average prognosis of US $ 2,750 Above the average prognosis of US $ 2,732.5, he pointed out that gold prices of more than US $ 3,000 or minors AU S2.500 depend on whether the Fed is ahead or behind the “Trumpflation” curve.
The demand of central banks
The demand of the central banks is identified as the second most important driver of gold in 2025. The purchases of the central banks significantly increase demand, positively impact on the feeling of the market and speculative activity further drives prices.
Geopolitical risks
In this sense, the relationship between the geopolitical risks and the activity of the central banks was clearly expressed by Bloomberg’s Grant Sporre whose average forecast for gold is US $ 2,727: “It is likely that geopolitical risks will remain high, since Trump’s return to the White House is probably not a reassuring influence, which could make central banks, especially those in emerging markets, continue to add gold to their reserves to a fast pace.”
As for geopolitical instability as a driving factor, it is clear that, In difficult times, gold becomes even more valuable. Since the beginning of February 2024, the month in which the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East charged impulse, until the end of March, the price of gold experienced an increase of 8%, from 2,045.85 to 2,214.35 dollars.
Source: Ambito
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