Dollar: The market anticipates how the exchange scheme would be after the agreement with the IMF

Although the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, discarded movements in the dollar official before eventual conditionalities of the new agreement with the IMF, In the City, possible adjustments are already considered in the exchange scheme. Among the hypotheses that circulate, the end of the blend dollara Less intervention in financial and even the implementation of a Band system for the officer. Some of these speculation generated rare movements in the market this Friday: The BCRA sold US $ 474 million, the second largest negative balance since 2019, and jumped the volume of futures. Beyond this, the consensus seems clear: in an election year, the key definitions will arrive after the elections.

It should be noted that President Javier Milei signed this week a decree of necessity and urgency (DNU) to advance negotiations without giving details of the agreement. The DNU only follows that the program It will be framed within 10 years, with a period of capital grace of 4.5 years and that will be destined to cancel non -transferable letters of the BCRA by the Treasury, Already cover Derived obligations of the extended facilities program signed in 2022, whose maturities operate in the next four years. In this regard, it is important to point out that although it would not imply an increase in gross debt, it does increase the external, while improving the balance of the BCRA.

With regard to the exchange scheme, in recent days various reports circulated through the City, which analyze what could come. From 1816after knowing the details of the DNU, they interpret that The IMF agreed to keep the volatility of both the official dollar and the CCL dollar. “That does not mean, however, there can be no modification in the current scheme. Some things that occur to us include The elimination of Blend, an intervention of the central in the most limited CCL or replacing the CRAWL of the A3500 with some bands with bands (The latter looks a priori unlikely, at least before the elections), “they detailed.

In turn, from Facimex analyzed in what context is the current exchange scheme: “The ´Crawling Peg´ It is consistent with the monetary restriction (sustained in fiscal balance) and Key for deflation; while The BCRA continues to buy currencies At an impressive pace adding more than US $ 3,000 million so far this year, the third best start of the year in history. The key to translating this into a greater accumulation of reservations is to recover access to the market, not to seek (once again) competitiveness by exchange route, “they said.

Therefore, they do not believe there are “Great conditionalities” in exchange matters, beyond “Some possible modification to the ´blend´ and/or eventual limitations to the use of foreign exchange currencies.” “Although it cannot be ruled out flexibility, if there were probably in the framework of A very gradual path“They expanded.

For its part, from SBS group They coincided with the previous analysis. For this stockbroker, at least in the short term, The IMF would not request abrupt modifications in the “1% monthly dollar, nor a substantive flexibilityespecially since they consider that the decrease in inflation of 2024 was largely obeyed not to deviate from the monthly devaluation path of 2%.

“We consider that, given the priority objective of disinflation, which is the fundamental variable when thinking about the chances of the ruling party in the October elections, The important modifications to the exchange scheme would come after the elections. We do believe that there would be objectives of accumulation of reservations, so Changes could be requested from the Dollar Blend scheme that deprived the BCRA in the average of 2024 of US $ 1300mn per month, “they added from SBS.

Finally, they assured that another point on which the IMF could be focused BCRA interventions in the CCL/MEPwith the IMF, being able to reduce them with the aim of losing less reservations in that way. “Following the conjectures about what the agreement could include, we believe that the commitment to a more ambitious fiscal objective would be a positive novelty,” they closed.

Blend dollar, “Crawling Peg” and financial interventions

“The IMF must believe some changes and the government must want to kick them after the elections, especially because Any rise in the exchange rate causes prices acceleration and I do not think they want to put the decrease in inflationary deceleration in months to the choice“He said to Scopethe financial analyst Christian Buter.

It is your opinion The possibility of taking out the dollar “Brend”, or moving to a band system, is not on the government agenda before the elections. “The government knows that there is a exchange rate backwardness, and that before an electoral event it could generate more demand. If, in addition, there is a flexibility, this can generate any impact on the price. If they take out the ´blend´, there will be an effect on the gap. That fight is the one that they still support and fail to agree,” he closed Buteler.

Also, economist Federico Glustein also analyzed these possible changes that the City considers: “I think the dollar ´blend´ will be difficult to replace in the short term Due to the motivation of grain liquidation by the thickness since theoretically in a few months ends the decline of retentions. Different could be with a change in the ´Crawling Peg´ to a regime more similar to between bands. However, the risks can be an impromptu exchange jump, For what I imagine Subsequently of the elections, where the political risk is lower“