Since his arrival at the White House, Donald Trump threatened his largest commercial partners with the application of new tariffs. Uncertainty shook financial markets and generates concern about US economic growth.
The arrival of Donald Trump to the presidency of USA produced a gale in financial markets for the application of its economic policies that include the Suba – or threat of increasing – tariffs on the products of its main commercial partners. In this scenario, a survey revealed that economists They expect the Federal Reserve to maintain stable interest rates during the first half of the yearbefore applying two reductions as of September.
In detail, according to the survey conducted by the Bloomberg, FED President Jerome Powell is expected next week The reference interest rate of the Central Bank in a range ranging from 4.25% to 4.5%. Previously, Federal Reserve officials indicated that they could choose to keep waiting for a while until the uncertainty produced by Trump’s policies.
What do economists expect from Fed’s interest taras
For next week, economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted that the reference interest rate of the Central Bank remains without major changes, in a range between 4.25% and 4.5%. In this sense, the general consensus is that the cuts arrive only in September and December.
In this sense, 11% of respondents expect officials to slow down even more the rhythm to which the Fed asset portfolio is reduced after the next week. On the other hand, a 41% foresee that happens at some point in the second quarter.
Amid the uncertainty produced by Trump’s policies, the chief economist for the US of BMO Capital Markets, Scott Anderson, said that “the Federal Reserve is in a very difficult situation at the moment, facing a more perspective of stagning even when the underlying inflation remains well above its objective in the medium term.”
Donald Trump Tariffs
“The uncertainty about the magnitude, duration and objectives of future tariffs further complicates the perspectives of monetary policy“Anderson said.
In reference to the future of the US economy, almost 75% of respondents said Now they see weaker growth for this year compared to the estimates made at the end of 2024. This change in forecasts is almost exclusively due to Trump policies. In addition, in this sense, about two thirds of the economists consulted claimed that they now foresee a greater inflation.
For its part, from the Fed they assure that it is “too soon“To know how you can affect the rise of tariffs on decisions about rates. In this scenario, Powell said that”The costs of being cautious are very, very low“And he analyzed that” the economy is fine. “
Source: Ambito
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