While one of them ensures that it is a necessary step for the economy, the other maintains prudence on implications and the impact in the short term.
The debate on the Exit from exchange rate gained relevance in recent weeks, with various economists presenting Your visions about possible scenarios and its implications in the value of the dollar and the economic stability of the country.
On the one hand, Orlando Ferreres, Director of OJF & Asociados, was optimistic about the possibility that the government will raise the stock before October. According to Ferreres, the acceleration of Loan of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) It could be key to strengthening the reserves of the Central Bank (BCRA), which would allow flexible exchange restrictions. In a radio profile interview, he said: “I think that the acceleration of the loan of the International Monetary Fund will help to change the treasure with its non -transferable letters to the dollars of the fund “and added that this financing” would allow to have a better assets of the Central Bank “and start “To move the theme of the different points of the stocks.”
![[copia] Dollar Blue today: how much is traded this Sunday, March 16](https://media.ambito.com/p/c2c10acca01aeb8ec28398bfd9af1a89/adjuntos/239/imagenes/042/110/0042110613/dolar-blue.jpg "[copia] Dollar Blue today: how much is traded this Sunday, March 16")
The economist also stressed that the departure of the CEPO could include the improvement of the situation of dividends and other capital shipments, which would have a positive impact on the economy. Although he acknowledged that the process depends on the approval of a decree of necessity and urgency (DNU) by the Congress, Ferreres provides that the lifting of the stocks could occur before the elections, although not necessarily before May. Anyway, Its forecast includes a possible rise in the dollar, with the warning that the lack of enough reserves could generate pressure on the exchange rate, what could trigger a Cumshot. “There may indeed demand, and that can imply a run, it is what is being paid is the decision to leave the stocks.”
Caputo Central.jpg Caputo
Scope
Arriazu spoke caution about the exit of the exchange rate
In contrast, Ricardo Arriazurenowned economist, showed a more cautious posture in the face of the possibility of a total stocks. Arriazu said that, although it is a critic of the stocks, the total lifting of the restrictions is not adequate given the current conditions of the Argentine economy. In an interview, he said: “The only problem I see Is that the IMF was flatly wrong, does not understand a monetary economy and consequently wants Argentina to float “ And he warned about the risks of a flotation without adequate conditions, saying: “What would have happened if Argentina floated in December 2024? He left the free exchange rate and eliminated the stocks with a debt for unpaid imports of 40 billion and with negative reserves. People were going to run to buy 40 billion and they would not be. And what would happen?
Arriazu also pointed out that The exchange rate should be controlled while the country manages a bimonary economy, in which the dollar is used as an account unit for transactions beyond the strictly local. “The exchange rate has to be stable and it cannot be free as long as it is an account unit. When it ceases to be a unit of account and people forget the dollar, a cucumber will care what happens to that currency, as happens in Brazil or in Chile.”
Arriazu also warned that the relative prices in Argentina are not necessarily late, but what happens is a “calesite” of adjustments between salaries, rates and prices, which ends up increasing inflation. “What people call behind is with respect to their aspiration, which is its maximum historical price, the problem is that this adds more than GDP and is an impossibility, but they try, and there is a relative pricing shell.” In this context, Price indexation should be eliminated to achieve stability. “If you don’t stop that shell, you will never stop inflation. “
The contrast between Ferreres and Arriazu reflects the tensions in the analysis of the exit of the exchange rate. While Ferreres considers that it is possible and necessary to take a step towards the flexibility of restrictions, Arriazu highlights the risks of a precipitated survey, especially in a context of inflation and limited reserves. Both agree that the key is in the management of expectations and in the prudent management of reserves, but differ in the urgency of releasing the exchange market.
Source: Ambito
I am a 24-year-old writer and journalist who has been working in the news industry for the past two years. I write primarily about market news, so if you’re looking for insights into what’s going on in the stock market or economic indicators, you’ve come to the right place. I also dabble in writing articles on lifestyle trends and pop culture news.
