To this are renewed fears about an increase in inflation in the United States caused by the greater closure of the economy. In the case of Argentina, global volatility hits more to actions than debt titles. The government’s decision to send a DNU to Congress to advance in the agreement with the International Monetary Fund It was well received by the markets.
The reaction of the markets to the agreement with the IMF
In the last week, the bonds operated with falls between 1.8% and 2.6%, and this led to a country risk rise, which remained in the 737 points. The agreement with the fund includes a program of facilities extended to ten years, with four and a half years of grace.
In it Market grows that the agreement with the IMF will include about US $ 8,000 million in fresh funds and other US $1,000 million in payments refinancing. Thus, the agreement would reach in total the US $ 20,000 million and alleviate payments to the IMF during the rest of Javier Milei’s mandate.
The fresh funds that arrive will be destined to cancel non -transferable letters of the BCRA by the treasure. The reading of the analysts is that at least until the elections the government will not modify exchange restrictions, According to Personal Investment Portfolio (PPI) analysts.
The debate among market agents is what financial asset could be most benefited, that is, if bonds or shares. The actions have been having a lower performance than the bonds in recent weeks. For Balanz, bonds can have a better performance for a final agreement with the IMF.
Since Trump proposes to continue advancing in his commercial war, it is expected that volatility has come to stay. For the Research team of Puente added that the shares, Especially the banking, they have much more bullish potential in the event of an agreement.
According to Gustavo Araujo, Head of Research of Criteria, The macroeconomic stability observed in 2024 promoted the domestic negotiable obligations market, reflected in sustained growth of new emissions and an improvement in liquidity and demand.
Facing 2025, they project that this trend will be strengthened, driven by a more stable environment and greater sophistication in corporate financing strategies. “Maintaining fiscal discipline is key to anchoring inflationary expectations and avoiding episodes of exchange volatility that undermine financing in pesos and dollars, thus facilitating greater access to credit for the private sector,” Araujo said.
Additionally, a satisfactory agreement with the IMF that guarantee macroeconomic stability in the short and medium term could boost Argentine assets and reduce country risk, facilitating Sovereign access to international markets.
This would generate a favorable environment for the issuance of new corporate debt instruments, especially if accompanied by political signals that provide economic predictability, in an electoral year.
The panorama of the Argentine economy
For its part, Trump’s presidency with commercial protectionist policies also raises regulatory challenges for strategic sectors in the country, as is the case of energy in the development of Vaca Muerta. Looking ahead to the closing of the first quarter, 2024 was a key year for the negotiable obligations market.
They were recorded 252 new emissions, 40% more than the previous year, with a total volume of US $ 13,126 million, which represents an interannual growth of 78%.
This level of emissions is the highest of the last decade, reflecting a greater expansion of corporate financingdriven by a more stable macroeconomics and an increase in credit to the private sector as a growth engine by 2025. According to criteria, the energy sector will continue to be key to sustaining an elevated surplus in 2025.
In January, it contributed a positive commercial balance of US $ 678 million, driven by a growth of 23.7% in exports and a 32.5% drop in imports.
“We hope that in 2025 the dynamics of emission of negotiable obligations will maintain the solidity observed in 2024,” said Araujo.
Source: Ambito
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