Future dollar: the demand for coverage and the expectation of devaluation grows away from the “tab” of the BCRA

To put in context, the MEP dollar and the counting with liquidation (CCL) increased more than $ 20 In just three days. The crypto dollar, which is usually a volatility thermometer, Reaches contributions of up to $ 1,280. After a complex Friday, in which the Central Bank recorded the second largest negative balance of the Milei era, The coverage demand was expected to be reduced strongly on Monday. However, this did not happen. Although the volume decreased, the upward trend remained and already seems to be far from being an isolated fact.

Future dollar: What rhythm of devaluation predicts?

On Monday, advances were recorded throughout the futures curve. The most affected deadlines were those corresponding to the second half of the year, with 0.8% adjustments in the prices agreed for October and November. In this way, the imlimplicit expectation of progress of the “Crawling Peg” for those months is between 3% and 4% monthly. That is to say, well above 1% that marks the “tabit” of the Central Bank.

This Tuesday, the contracts of future dollar They hold the upward trend, highlighting rises of up to 1.5% in positions to April and May, with implicit annual nominal rates of up to 45%. In this way, a devaluation jump is estimated in those months of up to 4%. The market begins to practice that times rush.

The agreement with the IMF and the doubts about the future of the exchange scheme

Uncertainty persists on the exchange scheme: the City glimps the possibility of a flotation system with bands or eventual devaluation In April, After approval of the IMF directorywhich could include changes in the official dollar policy. This perspective revived the possibility of the Ministry of Economy making adjustments before the elections and unleashed the exchange coverage.

According to a F2 financial solutions, “After 1.98 million contracts operated in A3 on Friday in futures on Monday, 543,011 were negotiated. The contributions adjusted with positive variations and the implicit rates were around 40% TEA for the first two positions while the first three already exceed the yields of the curve pesos. The forwards that were validated Without moving away from inflation breaks until October, for when the market begins to validate a vsaluatory risk premium. ”

From Aurum values, They stressed that the divergence between the expected exchange rate was grew according to the contributions of the futures of the Rofex and the “tabite” that derives from the “Crawling Peg” held by the government. In this graph, you can see how Until December the devaluation that would imply the continuity of the “Crawl” to 1%monthly is 10%, while future predict a rise in the official dollar accumulated until the end of the year of 26%.

Pablo Repetto, Head of Aurum Research Securitieshe said to Scope That the bullish demand is linked to the possibility that, with the agreement with the IMF, “a more flexible exchange scheme is associated with the IMF.” “In part, that was also allowed to transcend themselves (Luis) Caputo and (Javier) Milei, when they talked about more volatility. They stopped talking about the maintenance of the ‘Blend dollar’ weeks ago and some other considerations that are filtered from their speech. Then, the markets anticipating that, anticipate a Degree of coverage with greater demand for short -term Linked dollar bonds. ”

“The market continues evidencing uncertainty regarding the exchange scheme of the coming months, With alternative dollars demanded and raising their quotes, in addition to some pressure on the prices of future dollar contracts, which show implicit increases greater than the ‘crawling peg’ of 1% monthly arranged by the government. These unknowns will be revealed in the agreement with the IMF, but in the short term the look will first what ends up with the DNU in Congress. We repeat that the unknowns of the market pass almost exclusively through external accounts and the exchange plane, so until they have no more color about which scheme it will end up adopting and since when, as well as the magnitude and schedule of disbursements, disbursements, We could see volatility “said Juan Manuel Franco, chief economist of Grupo SBS.

The indications that closely follow the market

The first sign of the City’s concern was the Recent market expectations survey data (REM), where for the first time in a long time the market adjusted its projections for the official dollar. In particular, he highlighted the correction in expectations for the next 12 months: While in the January REM an increase of 15.3%was expected, now the projection is an increase of 20.9%.

However, for the accumulated of 2025, the projected rise is only 13.9%. This suggests that, in early 2026, there could be an adjustment in the value of the “green ticket”.

The second signal was provided by the fixed rate instruments, that operate with weakness and rising yields for weeks. According to Delphos Investment, on Monday’s wheel, maturities starting next year had drops of up to 1.5%.

“In the short and medium sections, the casualties were more moderate, in line with the dynamics observed in recent weeks. As a result, the curve closed completely flat, indicating that the market does not anticipate cuts in the monetary policy rate, currently in 29% TNA. This movement, characterized by an extension of yields in the long stretch and a flattening, suggests that the market begins to discount an exit of the stocks towards the last quarter of the year, in a context where ROFEX implicit rates are also observed in the implicit rates of Rofex for the same period, “they said of Delphos.

The key question is: Did the perspective of devaluation be advanced? This doubt begins to gain ground in the market, and signals could appear in the next few days. However, Volatility is not ruled out.