Dollar Blue shot almost $ 70 in five days: what’s behind the jump and how far you can climb

After starting the year calm and with a slight rearrangement, the Blue dollar woke up And he climbed $ 65 In the last five days, its greatest rise since December, in the middle of a adverse international context And especially before the market impatience regarding the details of the new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which puts into play the future of exchange policy.

Specifically, the parallel ticket went up $ 30 (+2.4%) This day until $ 1,285 for saleafter climbing another $ 15 on Monday and $ 25 during the past week. Thus, the gap With the officer it was located in the 20.2%exceeding the key level of 20% per second time in the year.

Oncemented blue dollar: what’s behind the jump, according to City analysts

Despite the sayings of the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputowhich he stated in the Expoagro 2025 that “The world has problems but we are fine because we have a macro order that we never had”City Buenos Aires analysts observe that the adverse climate in global markets is generating a “contagion effect” at the local level.

To this situation, the great fragility in the Balance of the Central Bank (BCRA) With an uprising of horizon, according to the government itself, which results in a search for coverage towards the dollar and also in a greater withdrawal of dollar deposits by private.

In turn, the “rumors of A modification in the exchange rate regime From the new agreement with IMF, “he explained to Scope, Andrés Reschini de F2 Financial Solutions.

“Greater volatility is being generated before the adverse and uncertain external context and the greatest impatience for the details of the new agreement with the IMF,” added the economist Gustavo Ber.

The truth is that, so far, The Government published a decree of necessity and urgency (DNU) That self-tabilite to the Executive to take external debt, contrary to current regulations, it provides that agreements with the IMF must be approved by the legislative power with force of law, thus guaranteeing greater transparency and public debate on these decisions. The debate for the DNU began this Tuesday afternoon in Congress.

“There is an economic position of post -vacation recovery that turns to savingsgiven this scenario of lack of agreement with the IMF in a concrete and transparent way by the Government, of the political problems, of the other inflationary of February, “said the economist Federico Glustein.

Dollar Blue overheated: At what price can it arrive?

“The rearrangement could be extended, although in an orderly manner, to the extent that the external context is not stabilized or the details about the monetary and exchange regime are known,” he catapulted Ber. In that order, he estimated that The parallel currency could reach $ 1,300 with a gap above 20%.

Among the tools that the government has to contain the gap, the operator Gustavo Quintana He mentioned the intervention in the financial dollar market, maneuver that has been implemented. Although, he was pessimistic and stressed that global markets are also “complicated”, so uncertainty and shelter is the dollar.

Reschini added that “this tension in the gap He hurries the procedures and forced the government to advance advertisements. “

In this context, Glustein observed that “agents seek to play more conservative letters and go to the dollar, so much Blue like the Financial And in this advance, it is seen that the roof close to the $ 1,300, What happens to be a goal distant to an increasingly real one. “

“Today’s almost 2.5%. If the government wants it to go down, bond has to be raised and clarify the agreement with the IMF, it does not have many more its own tools, although a currency income and some measure of stock suppression could help soothe the markets and stop the shooting, “said the economist.

Despite international and local fluctuations that generate tension in the markets, Ber He assured that, to his vision, “There is still the climate of trust and positive expectations”.

“In the event that the clarification of the agreement with the IMF arrives, the search for coverage that was activated in the last wheels by some economic agents,” he said and estimated that, if so, the blue dollar would return to the order of the $ 1,250.