One of the key factors indicated by experts is the adverse international context, which is causing a “contagion effect” on the local market. To this is added the fragility of Central Bank (BCRA)which keeps the possibility of lifting the exchange rate in the medium term. According to Andrés Reschini, of F2 financial solutions, “rumors on modifications in the exchange regime, based on the new agreement with the IMF, are also generating pressure in the dollar.”
For its part, Gustavo Ber It emphasizes that “greater volatility is being generated due to uncertainty about the agreement with the IMF and the global context.” In line with this observation, Federico Glustein He emphasizes that “economic agents seek to take refuge in the dollar in the absence of concrete definitions of the government.”
How far can the dollar get?
The blue dollar came to touch the $ 1,300. “The rearrangement could be extended in an orderly manner, but it depends on the stability of the external context and the definition of the monetary and exchange scheme,” Ber projects.
From the financial sector, Gustavo Quintana It emphasizes that the government is intervening in financial dollars to contain the exchange gap. However, it warns that the global situation is also generating tension in the markets, which could complicate the official strategy. Reschini adds that “this pressure is likely in the Government’s economic announcements.”
Glustein also warns that “if the government wants to avoid a shot, you must use tools such as the sale of bonds and the clarification of the agreement with the IMF.” In that sense, it emphasizes that “the increase of the dollar is a sign that the BCRA cannot ignore.”
Dollar: The analysis of specialists on the exchange scheme
One of the most discussed points is the possibility of an exchange flotation. Carlos Melconian It was sharp about it: “The flotation is a road, not starting. If you get out of the stocks abruptly, there is a risk of a exchange crisis.”
Along the same line, Juan Carlos de Pablo He warns that the Government “must cautiously manage the lifting of restrictions to avoid major economic problems.”
On the other hand, Salvador Di Stefano Try to take peace of mind and consider that “the agreement with the IMF will be signed at the end of March, which could stabilize the exchange situation.” In addition, he argues that “the market will accommodate only expectations.”
In short, while the government seeks to contain the volatility of the dollar and close the agreement with the IMF, economists agree that uncertainty remains the main pressure factor on the price. The next definition of the exchange scheme and the relationship with the background will be key to determining the course of the currency in the coming months.
Source: Ambito
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