Far from the concern caused by the statements of the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, about an eventual change of exchange regime; he Economist Fernando Marull Predicted that after the announcement of the signing of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) there will be no major changes with respect to what the government has been doing so far.
Referent heard by the market, Marull said that “the 2025 projections do not change them. We maintain the 5% bounce of GDP, inflation of 23% for the whole year, eventually lowers interest rates later, once it is remembered with the IMF. The gap will be stable, we do not assume devaluation. The ‘crawling peg’ will continue, ” The economist synthesized before a group of finance managers of the main Argentine companies.
The consultant’s position is the more dissonant in these last hours in which the delays in the signing of the agreement with the IMF and the non -forced political errors of the government itself put Doubts about the ability of Javier Milei To handle the situation and Avoid a “pack” of investors.
Marull states that if in the end Luis Caputo has to agree on any Modification in the exchange regime With the authorities that are based in Washington, “They will be marginal.”
“If any regime change comes It will be to order the official market and the Blend dollar a little. We assume that The ‘crawling peg’ will continue, ” He said.
The consultant, strictly no, does not rule out that the government Have to end the mechanism that allows exporters to liquidate their dollars by 20% due to the cash (CCL). But in turn, he understands that those dollars can enter the Central Bank that can use them to intervene in the market.
In this regard, he points out that if the government agreed a scheme of exchange bands (as mentioned) The flotation range “will be millimeter from 1% to 1.01% or 1% to 0.99%.” In other words, he said that “They will not give volatility to the official exchange rate. It would be suicidal “.
In relation to the “free” dollars, the professional says that if the Blend dollar is eliminated “it may now go there to go to the BCRA and then intervene.”
Why wouldn’t there be an output of the “Carry Trade”
Marull clearly raises that The “bicycle” of “Carry Trade” this time is absolutely national invoice. “Today they are not temple or Pimpco. In 2018 there were almost US $ 27,000 million in the ‘carry’ of outside, now it is zerowe are all of us. I don’t think there is a structural disarmament ”, The analyst holds, who warns in any case “politics does not have to put the tail.”
On the other hand, he points out that If the government agreed funds with the FMI fresh, that will not imply an opening of the stocks. “If someone imagines that the agreement signed the IMF sends US $ 15,000 million and That another day companies will be able to turn dividends, that will not happen ”, He told the listeners.
To justify their projections, in consultant he stressed that In a few months the dollars of the Cow Muerta harvest will enter, while maintaining that “imports are not flying.”
That is why he considers that The Central Bank will be able to buy reservations and that the lifting of the restrictions will be slow. For example, reduce the deadline for the payment of imports, which is currently 30 days.
Source: Ambito
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