In a context of exchange volatility and inflationary deceleration, Latinfocus analysts updated their projections on the Argentine economy.
According to their monthly report, the consultants and banks relieved adjusted their estimates on the evolution of the dollar and the inflation In the coming months.
Dollar projections: how much will quote in the end of 2025
The report emphasizes that The official exchange rate would remain below $ 1,300 at the end of 2025. In the previous projection, it was expected that it would exceed $ 1,311. Now, analysts foresee a price of $ 1,294 for December, while by 2026 the estimate rises to $ 1,530.
As for the parallel market, the Blue dollar is expected to close the year around $ 1,340, and that reaches $ 1,484 in December next year. “Both exchange rates will weaken with respect to current levels by the end of 2025, “they said in the report.
Market forecasts reflect the impact of the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), which reduced the devaluation of the official dollar from 2% to 1% monthly, after a slowdown in inflation.
Inflation: Will it continue to go down?
Analysts stressed that the consumer price index (CPI) fell to 66.9% year -on -year in February, from 84.5% registered in January, reaching its lowest level since June 2022.
“The pressure on prices is expected to decrease even more due to a solid base of the previous year, fiscal moderation, commercial deregulation, reduction of taxes on goods and less pronounced depreciation of the currency under the mobile parity regime,” they said in the report.
In this scenario, Latinfocus estimates that Inflation will close 2025 with a 42.9% risewhich implies a downward review of 2.4 percentage points with respect to the previous projection. By 2026, the forecast is 24.5%.
Economic growth: what is expected for 2025
The report also addressed the perspectives of the GDP, which showed a rebound of 1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024 in unstacted terms.
“Our consensus is that GDP will grow strongly in the first quarter of 2025, driven by lower inflation, lower interest rates, the improvement of agricultural and energy production, and the positive impact of liberalizing reforms,” said analysts.
However, they warned that “the available data have been disappointing.” In January, industrial production and exports registered falls, while dry climate could affect agricultural harvest.
Another key factor will be the negotiation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). According to Latinfocus, a new agreement would allow the Government to comply with its debt obligations and raise capital controls, which could impact the medium -term economic recovery.
With these factors at stake, the Argentine economy faces determining months where inflation, the price of the dollar and growth will be the main foci of market service.
Source: Ambito
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