The president’s economist and ex -social assured that the recent jump of the dollar is the result of a “dynamically inconsistent” strategy. “Chronicle of an announced death,” he said.
In a context of exchange uncertainty and in the midst of government negotiations with the IMF, the economist Diego Giacomomini, Exsocium by Javier Milei, launched a hard warning on the economic direction. “Chronicle of an announced death,” he said when referring to the recent rise in the blue dollar, which reached the $ 1,295its highest level in six months.
While he ruled out that an exchange run has occurred, he said this marks “The end of an inconsistent monetary policy”. He explained that the results promised by the government “never ended up” and warned that inflation remains over 2% monthly, when to be successful it should be in 0.4% or 0.5%.
The failure of the “triple convergence”
Giacomi questioned Milei’s strategy based on the convergence between inflation, interest rate and parallel exchange rate. According to his analysis, the official plan sought First reduce and then stabilize the price of the dollarbut with a limited exchange gap.
“The problem is that it had been lying with this convergence as a condition to open the stocks,” said the economist, who warned that the model was not sustainable over time. For him, the exchange adjustment was inevitable and would bring a devaluation or a nominal and real exchange rate.
Doubts about the agreement with the IMF
Another of the points where Giacomo distinguished from the ruling is in the negotiation with the fund. Rejected the possibility of a new agreement and recalled that Argentina already signed 27 programs With the organism.
“In the last 70 years they lent us US $ 182,000 millionand in the last 30, only in interest, we pay you U $ S 130,000 million“He explained. In addition, he assured that all the previous agreements failed and that this will not be the exception, despite the existence of Fiscal surplusa fact that he considered “lie.”
Finally, in dialogue with now Play, he warned that 2025 will be more complicated than 2024even with better macroeconomic numbers. “The bad economist analyzes what is seen. The good economist analyzes what is not seen,” he concluded.
Source: Ambito
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