In the midst of the growing exchange tension, the output of dollars of the entities persists. As in 2024, this factor remains key in the government’s economic policy, which could try to compensate for new IMF dollars and the positive impact of the thick harvest.
According to the most recent data, in mid -March, The downward trend of dollar deposits continues, without showing signals of change. As of March 12, dollars in dollars fell US $ 104 million. As a result, the accumulated negative balance so far this year reaches US $ 1,776 million and the total deficit of the stage 1 of the laundering ascends AU $ S4.462 million.
According to the SBS group data, the Total private deposits in dollars is currently at US $ 29,715 millions. It should be noted that, although the third stage of bleaching, Taxpayers must face greater Tax load when formalizing tickets until May 7, with an aliquot of 15%. According to the tributarians, this last phase can be used by companies or people in the process of inspection. However, although a month is missing for the closing of the process, Banks do not expect a large entry of dollars at the last moment that manages to compensate for the currency exit.
The Fall of dollar deposits also hit private loans in dollars, which decreased by US $210 million, located at US $ 13,593 million. Although loans increased by US $ 2,764 million during the year, in March only US $ 368 million fell. This setback reflects one of the main consequences of dollars: a Lower capacity of banks to grant credits.
It is also important to point out the impact that this situation has on the Context of the exchange tension that was seen in recent days. Banks’ dollars output increases pressure on gross international reserves, adding to external debt payment commitments and intervention on stock market dollars, which requires a greater amount of foreign exchange. For the economic scheme to continue working, it is essential to have dollars. The IMF disbursement, scheduled for April, Together with the thick harvest, I could help compensate for this strategy which worked during the second semester of 2024, which already shows signs of exhaustion.
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Where do the dollars come out of the banks go
In the first stage of the year, economists point out, Those who traveled abroad used many of those dollars. They were also used for the payment of maturity maturity by card. This was stated by economist Amilcar Collante a Scope, “Most of the last three months are linked to tourism and purchases abroad and a smaller part of real estate.”
Oscar Puebla, a real estate broker consulted, said There was an increase in operations in recent times. “We are doing many operations because the customer realizes that the dollar is ironed and that there are properties at old prices. We have done operations with people who take out their dollars from the bank or bring them out of the outside. The demand is very high and I can ensure that the dollars are going to brick. Another fact is that the discussion due to price reduction is very small. People are bringing the silver from the United States and Uruguay but also is taking it out of the bottom of the mattress.” Therefore, it is a sector that Yes it is seeing more movements.
Sebastián Menescaldi, director of Ecogo, He contributed that “the decline in dollars ends in the hands. If they go to investments as ON is deposited in the buyer and that is not seen. And if they are cars, the seller depends if it were a concessionaire would also end up in deposit. I think many bleached and used dollars. What they took to sell an asset, are taking those tickets, “he explained.
In the case of the sale of cars, another item to which those dollars could be invested, the patent numbers of the previous month highlight that it was a “normal” month after the tax decline, and some price sales in the most consulted models. However, It was not increased as overwhelming as it happened in the real estate item.
Finally, a source of a private first -line bank, relativized the exit of dollars: “From the end of the laundering, an exit of the deposits is reflected in the system Within the expected because there had been strong entry due to money laundering. We do not notice one particular intensification in recent months. The deposits remain high with respect to the historical average of recent years. “
In conclusion, The continuous exit of banks dollars is a factor to follow closely while those dollars are overturned in the real economy and continue to mobilize the economic activity of the mentioned sectors. Despite the bleaching signs, The economic scheme could be manageable by the government as long as the agreement with the IMF and the thick harvest is overwhelming and It allows an acceptable margin in an electoral year that will not be exempt from volatility.
Source: Ambito
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