At the end of the week, Bloomberg reported that next Tuesday an informal meeting will be held between the IMF technicians and members of its directory to discuss a credit of US $ 20,000 million for Argentina.
Although that figure or the conditions of the new loan has not yet been confirmed, analysts begin to carry out projections. Despite uncertainty, some data They allow sketching a probable scenario.
What is known about the agreement with the IMF and why would it be less what the BCRA will receive
The Government announced that the agreement with the IMF will have a four -year grace period since its signature, scheduled for mid -April. The IMF funds will be used to pay the agency itself and to cancel the debt in non -transferable letters in favor of the Central Bank (BCRA), with the aim of strengthening monetary authority before eliminating the stocks to the dollar.
According to the outlier consultant, If the program reaches US $20 billionthe net income of dollars would be about US $ 6,000 million. However, this calculation depends on the disbursement schedule, which will determine how many dollars can be allocated to cancel the non -transferable letters.
IMF: What maturities is the government pending
According to estimates, until May 2029 there are capital maturities with the IMF for US $14,400 million, which would imply a net financing of about US $ 5,600 million. However, if interest payments are included, the net flow would be negative, exceeding US $24,000 million in total.
The report also indicates that It is key to know the disbursement calendar to understand the impact on reserves in 2025. As explained, in the remainder of the year, only US $ 1,900 million is left to the IMF in interest in interest and other positions, but no capital.
Outlier consultancy He stressed that Milei’s ability to strengthen BCRA Before the exchange unification will depend largely on the IMF disbursements. However, they clarified that the money that enters the body will not necessarily translate directly into intervention capacity in the exchange market when the stock is eliminated.
They also pointed out that both the conditions of the agreement, as well as the goals on accumulation of reserves and the monetary-change regime, will influence the degree of freedom of the monetary authority. In addition, they recalled that the Government must accumulate around US $ 2,200 million this year to cover the bond payments that expire in July.
Source: Ambito
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