Morgan Stanley analysts underline that Wall Street faces their highest level of overall since 2022 and estimate that the S&P 500 could reach 5,900 points in the short term.
He S&P 500 suffered significant correction in recent weeks, falling 10% in just 22 days from their maximums historical According to Goldman Sachs, This is the sixth faster correction in the last 75 years, promoted by the slowdown in economic growth in the United States, uncertainty around tariff policy and pressure on the technological sector. For its part, Morgan Stanley points out that the overall level on Wall Street It is the highest since 2022, which favored the recent market rebound. But what is expected in the short term?
Morgan Stanley’s vision
Mike Wilson, head of Strategy for Variable Rent of the firm, provides that the S&P 500 continue its short -term recovery from 5,500 points, promoted by lower quality actions and high volatility, which were the most punished in this correction.
According to your analysisthe index could reach 5,900 points in the short term (compared to the 5,767 points in which he closed on Monday). However, Wilson warns that this rebound will not necessarily mark the end of volatility.
Technical difficulties and short -term perspectives
From a technical approach, Wilson points out that the main indices suffered significant damage, even deeper than in previous corrections of 10%. S&P 500 indices, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 1000 fell below their 200 -day mobile socks, turning them into resistance levels instead of support. In addition, many actions are close to reaching a 20%drop, while the Russell 2000 index has declined below its 200 -week mobile average for the first time since 2022.
This type of technical deterioration, according to the analyst, will take time to correct, even if there are no new falls.
Wilson argues that in order to provide sustainable recovery, it is essential to understand what this correction has caused. In his conversations with institutional investors, he has identified several key factors:
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Tariff policies and other ads of the new US administration.
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The pause in the federal reserve features.
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A possible deceleration in investment in artificial intelligence, influenced by the growth of the Chinese company Deepseek.
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The application of new migratory regulations in the US
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The impact of the Government Efficiency Department (Doge) and its influence on public spending.
Given this context, Wilson projects that the S&P 500 will move in a range between 5,500 and 6,100 points during the first half of the year.
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Long -term perspectives and Trump’s policy
Wilson also points out that President Trump made it clear that he does not consider the short -term performance of the stock market as a key indicator of his policies. This position, according to the strategist, contributed to the recent technical fall of the index.
For a more sustained rebound to occur, positive reviews will be needed in business profits, which could take several quarters to materialize. Nevertheless, Changes in economic policies, such as tax cuts, deregulation and lower interest rates, could boost more solid growth in the second half of the year.
Despite uncertainties, Morgan Stanley expects the S&P 500 Close the year around 6,500 points, anticipating a stronger recovery in 2026 as investors begin to discount a more favorable economic environment.
Source: Ambito
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