What to invest if the agreement with the IMF is signed, according to a City Guru

The week was not suitable for cardiac, the implicit rates of the future dollar climbed above the return rates of capitalization letters, this implies that the business of placing you in pesos and selling futures disregard, with great losses for the participants. This unleashed a massive purchase of dollars in the single and free market, which derives in sales of the BCRA of US $ 1,008 million in 5 days, leaving reservations at $ 26,783 million, and estimated real reserves around less $ 8,000 million.

This critical crisis of many consultants indicating that we had no chance of increasing reservations, however, the fine comb was passed to the balance of the Central Bank, since this administration pays imports of the previous administration, and debt in dollars as amortization because they could not put out to place debt in the voluntary credit markets. Without these conditions the reserves today would be above $ 50,000 million.

For Argentina to place debt in the volunteer markets we would need to leave the stocks, so that this happens, the Central Bank would have to be capitalized, and this in the short term does not seem to be available.

The Government is about to sign an agreement of extended facilities with the IMF, this implies paying the debt of US $ 40,000 million in a period of 10 years, with four and a half years of grace, and an estimated rate of annual 5.63%. If Argentina today placed debt at 10 years, you will obtain funds at a rate similar to the AL35 in dollars, this implies a rate of 12.3% annually, therefore, the agreement with the IMF is healthy. Agreeing with the IMF implies not getting out of the world credit map, we continue on the radar of the IDB and World Bank for Credits to Nation, Provinces and Municipalities for Infrastructure and Human Development.

No one knows the demands that the IMF intends to impose on Argentina for the next agreement, instead we know what Argentina already performs, has a fiscal surplus, is capitalizing the Central Bank, does not issue pesos and you have growing perspectives around 5.0% by the year 2025, with wide possibilities of repeating in the year 2026 if investments are specified in the energy area, and if the climate helps the field. What else can you ask for?

Although the markets were altered, with data as of March 17 we could say that from December 31 of the year 2024 to date the MEP dollar located at $ 1,287 increased by 10%, journalism sells it as an exchange run, and if it went down to $ 1,170 it would talk about exchange backwardness.

The effective tamar rate (fixed term rate greater than $ 1 billion) so far this year passes from 40.1% per year, at 36.3% per year.

Dolk loans rose in 2025 at $ 3,255 million, while loans in pesos rose at $ 5,901 million, of which 50% were financing to individuals and 25% advances in current account.

The deposits in dollars to the private sector have a stock of US $ 29,596 million, and in the year they fall by US $ 1,956 million.

The instability that we live in the markets will lead us to a scenario of illiquidity, which will bring with them a strong rise in interest rates, this implies a recessive scenario for the economy. Nothing is free in economics.

The new investment map

. – The boncap dual very attractive rates samples, the TTM26 bonus that expires on March 16, 2026 yields 43% per year, the TTJ26 bonus that expires on June 30, 2026 yields 44.0% per year. In both cases we assume that the Tamar rate (fixed term rate for more than $ 1 billion) will remain in the current values, if the low rate will surely these bonds will modify their return rate, it is good to know that the decline has an floor at a rate of 2.25% annual, which is the written and fixed rate of these bonds.

. – A LECAP with expiration at June 30 yields 37.4% per year, and is a good investment to diversify; The Lecap as of July 31 yields 38.2%; and the LECAP as of August 29, 39.6% per year. You can assemble a carbage with this schedule of letters, liquidity every 30 days from 105 days.

. – The survey of market expectation of the Central Bank estimates for the next 12 months after February of the year 2025 An annual inflation, therefore, the yields in pesos are highly positive. To see it better, the bonus in pesos that adjusts for inflation TX26, with payment of amortization and partial income, which expires in November of the year 2026 yields inflation plus 9.4% annual.

. – An attractive dollar bono is the AL35 in dollars, it is worth $ 64.0 and has an internal rate of 12.3% per year, if in a year Argentina achieves an agreement with the IMF, the Government wins the elections and leaves the stocks, this bonus should be worth between US $ 85 and US $ 90. In the meantime in the month of July of the year 2025 and January of the year 2026 you pay for the equivalent of the equivalent of the year 2026 U $ S 4,12, this implies a 6.4% annual return on invested capital, which can be enhanced sui the parity of the bonus rises.

. – Great volatilities in the market must be seen as business opportunities, and not as the cataclysm that precedes storms. The government shows a solid fiscal surplus, and a substantial balance improvement in the BCRA. It is best to look at the glass half full, and analyze menu of options to earn more money, you have to know that downward it has an apartment in a rate of 2.25% per year, which is the written and fixed rate of these bonds.

. – A LECAP with expiration at June 30 yields 37.4% per year, and is a good investment to diversify; The Lecap as of July 31 yields 38.2%; and the LECAP as of August 29, 39.6% per year. You can assemble a carbage with this schedule of letters, liquidity every 30 days from 105 days.

. – The survey of market expectation of the Central Bank estimates for the next 12 months after February of the year 2025 An annual inflation, therefore, the yields in pesos are highly positive. To see it better, the bonus in pesos that adjusts for inflation TX26, with payment of amortization and partial income, which expires in November of the year 2026 yields inflation plus 9.4% annual.

. – An attractive dollar bono is the AL35 in dollars, it is worth $ 64.0 and has an internal rate of 12.3% per year, if in a year Argentina achieves an agreement with the IMF, the Government wins the elections and leaves the stocks, this bonus should be worth between US $ 85 and US $ 90. In the meantime in the month of July of the year 2025 and January of the year 2026 you pay for the equivalent of the equivalent of the year 2026 U $ S 4,12, this implies a 6.4% annual return on invested capital, which can be enhanced sui the parity of the bonus rises.

. – Great volatilities in the market must be seen as business opportunities, and not as the cataclysm that precedes storms. The government shows a solid fiscal surplus, and a substantial balance improvement in the BCRA. It is best to look at the glass half full, and analyze menu of options to earn more money.