After the exchange turbulence of the last week, the Ministry of Economy announced Tuesday The menu of letters and bonds that will offer in the next debt tender in pesos, to be held this Thursday. As analysts speculated, given the highest devaluation expectations, The treasure will test the market again with two bonds linked to the evolution of the exchange rate.
It is a placement in which the government faces maturities for just over $ 9 billion, of which two thirds are in the hands of the private sector, Therefore, it will be a challenging tender for the Ministry of Finance led by Pablo Quirno, right hand of Minister Luis Caputo.
In this way, the economic portfolio will offer the market Three short -term LECAPSwhich expire on 04/28/25, 05/30/25 and 07/31/25, respectively. In turn, it will make available to investors Two Titles dollar Linked, as of 06/30/25 and as of 01/16/26, According to the case.
Finally, there will also be Two bonds tied to inflation: zero coupon bonce, expiring as of 10/31 and 03/31/27. The treasure seeks to renew Fixed rate maturities and close in the middle of exchange volatility.
The head of Capitos Capital, Ariel SbdarHe stressed that the turbulence in the markets of recent days generated an increase in rates in pesos, since investors went out to sell, and a strong jump in the contracts of the future dollar before rumors that the IMF can demand an adjustment in the exchange scheme to seal a new agreement for the debt.
Expectations for the “rollover” level
Expectations will be set at the level of “Rollover” that the national government achieves this time. Until now, Quirno has not had major problems in refinancing weights of weights, but in a context in which local currency placements were not under pressure.
In previous tenders there was no interest from the market in letters tied to the dollar. While it is true that since economy they stressed that the zero demand was a demonstration that no one believed that there was a devaluation, It is also true that offers in terms of yields, comparing with implicit rates in future contracts, were poor. Now this can play against. If there is demand for instruments tied to the US currency, this can be taken as a bad sign.
In fact, it has some $ 6 billion deposits in the Central Money Bank that could be captured above the needs of the moment, So if the Treasury Palace had to face a more hostile scenario would have enough resources.
Some analysts estimate that approximately half of the maturities are in the hands of the State’s own agencies, but They consider that “roll” the other half can be complicated in the current circumstances.
Beyond this, the news of the negotiations between the IMF and the Government for a 4 -year program with 10 repayment term, in which there would be fresh funds and decompression of maturities in dollars, It could reassure the demand for currencies and stop the disarmament of positions in “Carry Trade” the banks, which are the ones that these days generate the greatest difficulties.
In relation to interest rates, The government has chosen to make a proposal that is mostly short, Trying to meet a possible market demand, which prefers to take risk before the legislative elections. In the offer menu there is only one bonus in pesos to October. On the other hand, a letter linked to the dollar is proposed for January 2026.
Source: Ambito
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