For market operators, the inclusion of two bonds tied to the official dollar In the next debt tender in pesos it constitutes a challenge to try contain rates and avoid migration to parallel dollars.
In front of a Expiration of $ 9.2 billion, the Ministry of Economy included two dollar linked instruments: a bonus as of June 30 and a letter as of January 16, 2026.
Both titles could have some demand on this occasion, compared to previous tenders in which instruments linked to the US currency were included, in which they did not register investors.
Contain the future dollar, the official objective
The idea of economic authorities is Avoid taking off the implicit rates in future dollar contracts, But without the Central Bank getting to intervene in that market. They will seek to decompress with the Linked dollar bonds that will be made available to the tender that the Ministry of Finance will carry out this Thursday.
In the future dollar market, the contracts that expire on March 31 They have been agreed with monthly effective yields (TEM) of the 2.71%, With one annual nominal rate (TNA) that jumps at 41.2%. On April 28, a 2.66% topic is being paid with a 57% TNA.
Thus, from the Palace of Finance it will then be sought Catch part of the coverage demand for an alleged change of exchange regime which could force the agreement with the IMF that appeared in recent weeks.
In this regard, Cohen Argentina’s economist, Milagros Gismondi, commented in a talk with investors that “The interest rate is registering upward pressure, Because liquidity in pesos is being limited. ”
“If higher rates are not validated, there will be rise in parallels ”, Gismondi, who referring to the next debt tender in national currency stated that “The treasure was played by reopening dollar Linked. ”
“If there was a demand, that would indicate that he managed to roll the expiration and the government will have to tell a positive story, ”he explained.
The negative part of the demand for bonds tied to the dollar
But if he put his eye on the negative interpretationit could also be said that, as well as from the Palace of Finance it was indicated that the lack of interest of the markets in the Linked dollar bonds was a sign of confidence that there was not going to be devaluation, The appearance of demand could be interpreted backwards.
Obviously, The market needs greater signals about what is agreed these days with the IMF To be calmer. In 2025 the government needs to refinance solve expenditures in foreign currency for US $ 15,500 million, of the cUs $ 8,800 million are exchange current account deficit. The rest are payments to organisms and private debt. For markets, it is so important to be clear about the amount of the agreement as if there will be a change of dollar regime.
In addition to the Linked dollar, the market expects to see What will be the rates that validate the treasure in the placement of Lecap and CER titles this Thursday.
The pressures against the weight, due to “Carry Trade” positions continue, despite the fact that the most likely scenario that analysts and operators silver are silver is that there will be no significant news with the exchange regime until after the elections and that, even in that context, the discreet jump with affectation on inflation would also be limited.
Source: Ambito
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