As they explain, tariffs will affect the profits of the US markets, given the possibility that there is a significant deceleration in US economic activity, but without reaching a recession.
Stock markets in Wall Street They received the impact of the Donald Trump’s tariff policiessince these restrictions on international trade translated into the possibility of a recession. That is why analysts of Barclays they reduced their S&P 500 forecast by 2025.
It should be noted that the S&P 500, at present, moves near the 5,800 points. This American stock market index has lost 3% in the last month and also fell 10% from its historical maximums.
Different scenarios: What could happen to the S&P 500
As explained, tariffs will affect the profits of the US markets, based on a base scenario that predicts a significant slowdown in American economic activitybut without reaching a recession.
“Our base case assumes that profits suffer an impact since tariff It does not reach a direct recession, allowing the valuations to gradually recover“They point out.
In a Alcista scenariothe panorama is that of a political and industrial pressure that could make it possible to reverse in its tariff plans to the president of the USA, Donald Trump. In this case, he estimates that the S&P 500 would reach the 6,700 points.
But if a pessimistic scenariothe index could fall to the 4,400 points. However, he acknowledges that this scenario starts with a lower probability.
“He Financial sector It could benefit as the attention of monetary policy eventually moves away from trade and potentially is directed towards deregulation, “they explained from Barclays.
On the contrary, they reduce discretionary and industrial consumption sectors, ‘negative’ from ‘neutral’, due to the weak consumer confidence. “Industrialists seem expensive in front of their history and are exposed to both commercial policy and the fragile pmi manufacturing“They point out.
Source: Ambito
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