A little over a week ago, the market began to cover an eventual devaluation and the various types of parallel changes to overcome the level of $ 1,300. It was after the possibility that The agreement with the IMF brings an adjustment in the current “Crawling Peg” system It weighs on The official dollar. This generated a massive sale of assets in pesos which caused a rise in yield before the disarmament of “Carry Trade”very profitable while the exchange rates were calm.
At the same time, the Ministry of Economy announced Tuesday The menu of letters and bonds that will offer in the bidding of debt in pesos, to be held this Thursday And that, according to market analysts, will be key. The economic portfolio will make the three Lecaps short term, two Bonds tied to inflation (Zero coupon bonce) and, Two titles linked to the evolution of the exchange rate (dollar Linked). It should be noted that the treasure seeks to renew maturities at a fixed rate and CER, for about $ 9.2 billion.
Experts note that, in the middle of a bouncing rates in the secondary market, it will be interesting to see The yields that finally decides to validate the treasurein addition to analyzing if there is interest in the market in making bonds of Dollar Linkedat times where there is exchange demand for fears of an eventual devaluation. This tender will also seek to decrease The pressure that “future dollar” contracts have that complicate investors who seek to make “Carry Trade”in addition to tensioning the sales that the BCRA has to make to hold the financial dollar gap.
In this context, it is worth asking, is it necessary to invest in the curve in pesos in the current context? For Ignacio Muruafinancial advisor of QuickTrade SBS“It will be vital to understand the fine line of the agreement with the IMF if we are going to invest in pesos. This type of investment has the potential to generate huge short -term returns, but also have the habit of eraseing the great yields generated, in a brief period of time, which makes it very difficult for the reaction to be on time. “
LECAPS, BANCAPS, DUALS, CER OR DOLLAR LINKED: What to invest?
Alejo Rivasstrategist in Balanzsaid in dialogue with Scope that, with respect to the bonds Dual“We prefer to get tactically more cautious waiting for exchange uncertainty.” In this regard, he indicated that “CER seem to be the best instruments for this juncture” and stressed that the short part yields around 6% while the long part was about 10% of IRR.
Therefore, he said that “we like this kind of assets, both for conservative, aggressive bets.” For the first case, they recommended the Tzx25, While, for those who decide TZXD6that yields above 10% and has less duration than 2027 and 2028.
For its part, Pablo Lazzati CEO of Insider Financehe said: “Within the instruments in pesos, today we are inclined to LECAPS AND BANCAPS short -term, especially for the electoral stage. The series seem attractive S18J5 and S29G5which allow to capture interesting rates, while avoiding the risk of extending too much duration in a context of uncertainty. “
For those who evaluate positions beyond the elections, they recommended looking at the bonds Dual short term but with expiration after October, such as the TZX25which offers a tir around CER +5.7%and the TZXD6that yields near CER +11%. “We believe that in this scenario, where the coverage is still sued, These instruments allow to capture much of that dynamic without resigning rate“Lazzatti said.
For its part, to Ignacio MuruaSBS group advisor, within the wide range of alternatives that exist in this market, believes that “Dual bonds are those that present the greatest incentive”since these bonds pay “the highest rate between The fixed rate of the bonus and the tamar rate (Fixed term rate of more than $ 1 billion), which also gives us coverage to eventual maintenance of passive rates by banks (which more than one analyst stands out as very likely given the lack of liquidity of the financial system) “.
In this regard, he stressed that current BCAPS either Lecaps; while the dual rate (using the fixed rate) is approximately 37%/38%, so it is barely below the rate of BCAPS/LECAPS“what gives us the idea that the option Tamar It looks more attractive. “
Source: Ambito
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