Blue dollar above $ 1,300: the reasons why it exceeded a symbolic threshold

The parallel dollars operated under pressure this Wednesdayin the midst of doubts about the impact of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the government exchange policy. While the Blue exceeded $ 1,300 for the first time in almost seven months, the financials cut their progress on the end of the wheel.

He Blue dollar He climbed another $ 15 (+1.2%) to $ 1,310. Thus, it accumulated a jump of $ 45 (+3.6%) in the last three days and $ 80 (+6.5%) so far in March.

Meanwhile, after operating above $ 1,300 during the first hours of the open market, the CCL and MEP They ended with slight increases, just below that symbolic threshold. Market sources told Scope that a volume of bond operations was observed at 30 and GD30 higher than the average, which is usually a BCRA intervention indicator to contain quotes.

With these variations, Gaps With the official exchange rate they were above 20%, becoming the 22.2% In the case of Blue.

Why do parallel dollars upload?

It is worth remembering that in recent days they gained ground rumors around adjustments in the exchange scheme as part of the negotiations with the IMF. The versions included a discreet adjustment in the official exchange rate to correct the backwardness and order to the Government to leave the direct intervention in the financial and the “Blend” dollar.

“The market has a lot of uncertainty Regarding orders that can come from the IMF. We think that, to the maximum that the government can access, it is a large flotation band, which will then be corrected with fiscal and monetary solvency, “he told this medium Walter Moralespresident of Wise.

An analysis of the Economic Studies Management of the Province Bank He stressed that part of the fall in reserves in recent times responds to the lowest demand for dollar credits as a result of a Increase in the expected devaluation. “A company is borrowing in foreign currency when the interest rate in pesos exceeds the interest rate in dollars + the expected devaluation,” they said.

This change in expectations was reflected in recent weeks both in a strong rise in parallel exchange rates, as in a Increase in future dollar contracts.

“To see BCRA again as a net buyer in the official market, the interest rates of LECAPS (between 32% and 35% per year) and future dollar (which reach up to 47% per year) have to align“said economist Amilcar Collante in his X account.

From Wise they do not believe that the agreement with the IMF implies “an initial exchange adjustment or anything like that”. In the entity they expect an agreement with the body closest to US $ 30 billion than at $20,000 million, which would help reduce the gap to the values ​​prior to this turbulence that crossed the exchange market in recent days.