The Spanish bank specialists provide a gradual departure from the CEPO after the legislative elections. And a rise of the dollar that would close the year at $ 1,400. How would it impact inflation?
BBVA’s team of economists in Argentina predicted that the dollar Official will close the year around $ 1,400 and that the economy will experience a 5.5%rebound. In addition, it provides for a “gradual dismantling” of the exchange rate After the legislative elections.
In his report, the Spanish Capital Bank warned that the main risk to the Government is the loss of popular support, which could hinder the support of fiscal and monetary balance.
BCRA exchange rate and reserves
BBVA analysis indicates that The government will maintain the current exchange scheme until October to avoid pre -election volatility and then begin the unification of the exchange market. Currently, the official dollar lies at $ 1,070.75, which implies that it will rise 30.7% in the remainder of the year.
On the reserves of the Central Bank, the report highlights that the entity bought about US $ 3,000 million in 2025, although it also sold approximately half in parallel markets. Debt payments explain the stability of reservations despite accumulated purchases.
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Inflation and economic activity
The BBVA projects that inflation will be located in 30% per year, while GDP will grow 5.5% driven by the recovery of consumption and investment. Despite the monetary astringency and the current exchange scheme, they point out that the improvement in real wages and pending adjustments in regulated prices could put a floor to deflation.
Political risks and “Libragate”
One of the main risks that the report stands out is the possible fall in the popularity of the government, which could affect fiscal and monetary policy. In addition, it refers to the scandal for the cryptocurrency Libra, although it indicates that it had a “slight” impact on the presidential image and did not affect financial markets. However, it highlights the need to improve official communication to avoid similar episodes.
Perspectives for 2025
According to the report, the fiscal balance reached in 2024 will be maintained this year, despite the reduction of the tax base due to the elimination of the country tax and the decline of withholdings. The bank considers that the economy will grow thanks to the greatest collection, consumption and future sales of public assets.
The report concludes pointing out that, despite the macroeconomic adjustment, Javier Milei remains the president with the highest approval in his first 15 months of government from Nestor Kirchner. Likewise, confidence in the economy is reflected in the increase in the predisposition of consumers to make purchases of durable and real estate.
Source: Ambito
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