Luis Caputo promised that the agreement with the IMF will allow to return to global markets: what do economists expect?

Caputo stressed that the support that the Central Bank will receive will be unpublished, even compared to convertibility. According to the minister, the injection of FMI funds, together with the contributions of the IDB, the World Bank and the CAF, will raise gross reserves at about $ 50,000 million. This, he explained, represents more than double the monetary base in dollars both to the official exchange rate and free.

The official insisted that financial assistance will help avoid shocks in the exchange rate and reiterated that a devaluation is not part of the official strategy. Besides, He assured that the strengthening of reserves will reduce the country risk, which in recent weeks exceeded 700 basic points.

“The agreement with the IMF should help compress the country risk, which in turn will allow Argentina to recover access to markets “Caputo said, emphasizing that the objective of the government is to stabilize the economy and improve financing conditions for the country.

According to the IMF: What impact will it have on the country risk?

For economist Jorge Neyro, “The announcement gives more certainties but is not surprising in the amount” And he recalled that last week he had already transcended the figure through Bloomberg. According to your vision, this announcement will have an impact on the short -term country risk and the Argentina could return to markets with a country risk of 400 basic points. “That is, about 300 points down,” affirmed.

For Francisco Ritondo, economist from ACM, “the news is more than positive and around what was expected.” In that sense, he remarked that he will work as Upside for the Argentine market that will imply a country’s loss. However, he warned that Doubts persist about the Crawling PE exchange scheme at 1%. According to his vision, greater certainties around this issue will define the descending trajectory of the country risk. “Optimal country risk levels in relation to the region would be an average of 400BP, so we manage to drill the minimum of January 560 points, we would be able to consider international markets again. But there is still land to travel and will depend on how the ads evolve from the technical agreement with the IMF. “

The doubt about the dollar persists

For his part, economist Andrés Salinas said that it will be difficult to return to the minimum levels obtained by the Government, because there is still the conditions with which that disbursement will come. “It is already known that there will be a change in what is the exchange scheme, how it will be more flexible and I think that is what the market will continue to expect. In an election year, market movements must be grabbed with tweezers because there is a lot of volatility as every electoral years and for more good conditions you have, they need definitions. “

For its part, Maximiliano Suárez, Fortress Capital Partner Wait that “there may be a tension” in the exchange rate until greater details about the new exchange scheme are expected. “The idea that they seem in the head is a Neoconvertibility scheme, where they are very strongly controlling the amount of pesos in circulation and controlling reserves levels. In such a way that you can have volatility in the exchange market but that volatility is limited to the balance between assets and liabilities. “

In that sense, he stressed that it is a scheme that can be sustainable “as long as the financing for that transition appears. In that sense, the Rold the IMF and other loans such as World Bank, IDB, some repo with private, or with Ciara is key. According to its perspective, it would give the impression that the government has controlled the medium and long term, but in the short doubts about whether the IMF asks or non -devaluation “can generate any noise.”

Within that framework, Suarez stressed that from their vision they do not see meaning to “devalue 5% or 10%, it would change nothing in terms of delay or not delay and would generate a rupture of the Crawling PEG-Carry Trade scheme and would break all expectations without getting anything in return.”