While parallel dollars rehearsed a warm decrease, the Buenos Aires bag, That started with marginal improvements, turned around and closed down. While future dollar, Despite cautious casualties, he returned to the bullish path. For its part, the sovereign bonds They were the most benefited with average rises of the 0.6%so the country risk fell to 759 basic points.
The spokeswoman of the International Monetary Fund, Julie Kozackavoided confirming the amount of US $ 20,000 million for Argentina, although He announced that it will be “considerable”. In addition, he argued that the conversations to achieve the new program with the government of Javier Milei They meet “Very advanced” and highlighted the program, mentioning that “There is a shared recognition of the need to continue adopting a consistent set of monetary fiscal policies and exchange”.
In relation to funds of funds, Kozack said that “As in all programs, disbursements will come in sections throughout the life of the program. But the exact phases and the size of each section are also part of the conversations that are being maintained. ”
IMF Agreement: Market behavior after Caputo’s announcement
However, the S&P Merval The day started with a rise of up to 1.1%but closed with a fall in 1.1% and The actions of the leader panel operated with a majority of casualties, headed by the banks. The sovereign bondsfor their part, they closed with increases from up to 1.5%although among the Bonares Some marginal losses were observed.
He Blue dollarwhich comes from strong fluctu Treasury Palace. In that context, the parallel fell $ 10 (-0.8%). Financials, meanwhile, quoted with slight casualties: the MEP yielded 0.3% to $ 1,292.29, while the CCL It decreased 0.1% a $ 1,298.77. The gaps with the officer averaged the 21%.
The contracts of future dollarwhich closed with strong casualties on Wednesday, they operated a large part of the wheel, but closed with casualties for March, April and July, while the other positions scored increases. The set of novelties seems to be The doubts revived of the City about the future of the dollar Once the new program governs.
The IMF directory It meets in mid -April to end the program with Argentina. In that scenario, as no staff member made statements about the level of the agreement, everything indicates that negotiations continue, which still maintains nervousness in the market.
City analysts: technical details are missing
Although the announcement was not taken with euphoria in the City of Buenos Aires, some analysts mention that it was “positive” that Caputo made known the amount that the multilateral credit agency asked and others observe that Excess market expectations compared to the IMF was an “error”. However, they agree that investors are still waiting for “Technical details”, such as new exchange scheme and the possibility of a devaluationbeyond that the minister commissioned to deny him.
“To be the entrance announcement of US $20,000 million, the market took it with a rather mild reaction”the economist analyzed Christian Buter In dialogue with Scope.
“I think it has been a mistake to generate so many expectations about the fund, especially if the negotiation was going to take so long. The only thing that can calm the market is the specific definitions, no more the ads”he pointed out.
“The market reacted mixedly to Caputo’s announcement. Mainly, Investors expect the panorama to be clarified About what will be the new exchange scheme, added that although they know how much is the amount that will come, the availability of resources is not yet known, how much and when the income period will be, “the economist observed Federico Glustein.
The specialist also completed: “I think it lacked forcefulness to dissipate some uncertainties that are currently presented, to which it adds that the field is not yet liquidating enough For the context, therefore, follow the bleeding of currencies and uncertainty until some points are clarified. “
Unlike Buteler, Pablo Lazzati of Insider Finance He said that “by publicly disseminating the government, it is ensured to evacuate all conjecture and circulating speculation in the market.”
Key: What will happen to exchange policy?
Beyond Caputo’s announcement, there is a climate of high volatility and global uncertainty, so “Investors are eager to know the technical details of the agreement with the IMF”explained the economist Gustavo Ber.
“In particular, the focus is on eventual modifications in the exchange rate regimesince it is discounted that the guidelines will seek the accumulation of reserves, “added the specialist.
“The initial reaction of the dollar’s futures was negative, indicating that the market is still waiting for changes in official exchange policy”they pointed out from ADCAP.
Regarding the new agreement, they mentioned that “specific details are missing”, but it is likely that a part of the U $20,000 million “It is disbursement in a staggered way to align the maturities until February 2029” and that “are subject to quarterly revisions.”
From ADCAP They expect some “flexibility” in the official exchange rate, “Probably through bands”which should have a “positive” impact on the curve in pesos. In that line, Ber added that “at least it has been anticipated A gradual reduction of ‘dollar blend’“And consider feasible a band system, within a strategy to reinforce the balance of the BCRA and advance in the Exchange flexibility and the process of disinflation.
Source: Ambito
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