When the banks change positions are closed on Monday, March 31 and finish closing the market accounts of the dollar official, it is likely that the international reservations of the Central Bank (BCRA) are located below US $ 26,000 million.
This was estimated by Outlier consultant In your last daily report. “The gross reserves were at US $ 26,222 million, yesterday sales (on Thursday) impact today (Friday) along with the aforementioned intervention in parallels and we will have the classic movements of typical end of the end of the month between today and Monday, with which It is not unlikely that we see reservations under US $ 26,000 million at the end of March and April’s starter ”said the firm directed by Gabriel Caamaño.
In other words, beyond the typical movements of the end of the financial system, There was a strong impact of the volatility of the last two weeksin which the market began to doubt whether the government will apply a change of monetary regime after the new according to the IMF.
According to the analyst Christian Buter, “in March 2024 the BCRA had bought US $ 2,882 million,” and now “March 2025 projects to be the fourth worst of the last 23 years”, Regarding currency sales. It would be behind 2018 (US $ 2,040 million), 2023 (US $ 1,920 million) and 2009 (US $ 1,862 million).
This Thursday the Banco Central sold $ S84 million, a figure that is located below the three digits and that would obey a certain decompression of uncertainty. In the market Officer $ S412 million were operated, while exporters liquidated US $ 142 millionsretaking the rhythm of sales that had dropped to less than half on the last wheels.
The dollar and agreement with the IMF
Not only is it to know if after the agreement with the Fund The “Crawling PE will follow” or if there will be a system of flotation bands. In addition, the unclear statements of Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, On the amount of the operation he added to the general confusion.
“Blazos record today in the press. I tell the people of good to be used, because As things continue to improve they will go for new records“the head of the Treasury Palace posted on social networks Regarding the interpretation that arose after the announcement made on Thursday morning.
In this regard, Outlier states that “The announcement was quite confusing Because, on the one hand, he said that the agreement would be US $ 20,000 million in total (which would leave net versus capital maturities of the EFF 2022 about US $ 6,000 million approximately, until May 2029) and, on the other hand, that gross reserves (when we add loans from other international organizations) They would reach almost US $ 50,000 million (it did not clarify the date), which would imply that US $ 20,000 million would be new debt. ”
“He didn’t say anything about disbursement schedule, But the last statement fed speculations that pointed out that they were since the US $20,000 all arrived at the beginning that the amount mentioned was over the maturities, with which the global was greater, ”adds the consultant.
The report recalls that “The IMF through its spokeswoman Julie Kozack did not give major details More than the agreement would imply periodic disbursements and it would not be all ‘Up Front’, which is normal and habitual in the IMF EFF ”.
“Later, official voices seemed to affirm that the US $20 billion would be freely availability of a new program, that EFF 2022 is another program and that they should not be mixed in the analysis. With which they would seem to confirm that they are US $ 20,000 million, no more than that, and it remains to know what the disbursement schedule will be,” explains the consultant.
In that sense, Outlier clarified that “It is already recognized that it will not be all ‘Up Front’ (an entire disbursement at the beginning) “but explained that“ the IMF pointed out that the global amount and the ‘UP front’ are not yet closedsince that is defined by Board. ”
For its side, Personal Investments Portfolio (PPI) indicateddepending on the anticipation of Caputo, that “The new agreement of extended facilities with the IMF is for US $ 20,000 million. ”
“Given the maturities for US $ 14.4 billion from here to April 2029, Net financing would be around US $ 5,600 million. As expected, no details were given about the disbursement schedule, ”adds PPI in his Daily this Friday.
Source: Ambito
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