He Blue dollar It jumped almost $ 100 during March and closed above the $ 1,300despite the fact that the government tried to calm the market in recent days with the announcement of the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputoon the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
He Green ticket parallel accumulated an advance of $ 95 (+7.7%) During the third month of the year and closed to $ 1,325, Its greatest value since the end of last August. Thus, the gap was positioned in the 23.4%.
The IMF confirmed that Argentina requested a loan for US $20 billion
Caputo said Thursday that requested a loan for an amount of US $20,000 million to IMP, something that the spokeswoman of the organism, Julie Kozackhe avoided confirming during his press conference that afternoon.
However, this Friday the agency clarified that “the managing director had a call with Minister Caputo to discuss the next steps in the preparation of a new 4 -year EFF program, and that the Argentine authorities requested a total financing package of U $20,000 million“
Regarding funds flows, Kozack said Thursday that “As in all programs, disbursements will come in sections throughout the life of the program. But the exact phases and the size of each section are also part of the conversations that are being maintained ”.
Blue dollar: what does the market expect after confirmation of the loan amount for the IMF
Despite the different Government ads and of the own IMF, he Market still expects “technical” details of the agreement as the possible variations in the exchange regime and the disbursement schemeas well as a possible “Band flotation system”.
The variations of exchange regime have the focus, according to the economist Gustavo Ber, In the future of the “Blend dollar” and the “Crawling Peg” of the 1%.
“All this aiming to reinforce international reserves, and thus Ball of the BCRAwhich is important to continue advancing in exchange flexibility and in the disinflation process, “said the economist.
“It is feasible that we see the blue dollar a little higher in the first weeks of April”said Epyca economist, Eric Paniaguain dialogue with Scope. The increase in the parallel exchange rate would respond – according to the specialist – to the tension product of the uncertainty generated by the agreement with the IMF, especially with respect to what the new exchange rate regime will be. “This is definitely taking many investors to buy more currencies than it had been seen,” he added, focus on the last days, where the parallel currency was under pressure.
The economist Federico Glustein detailed two scenarios: “If the agreement with the IMF is signed and low. Now, if that does not happen and there is tension, We can have a new transitional roof that marks high values such as $ 1,360or could even go higher, provided that the demand for weights continues. “
“While the Blue market is smaller, many of the private agents are securitized buying blue and selling when necessary (or not), trying to maintain at least the difference with the purchase value and cover themselves with a devaluation,” explained the economist.
“However, in the last time after money laundering, the offer remained relatively low, more linked to the ‘carry-trade’, so if there is less offer, then, the parallel currency is likely to react more volatile and those values are less stable. If there are no tickets, it is possible to shoot over the current price,” Glustein added.
For its part, Gustavo Quintana of PR CHANGE OPERATORS He added the “harvest income” factor, which during April could reassure the market a bit. “Many trucks entered Puerto in Rosario and that anticipates future sales,” he emphasized.
Source: Ambito
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