The investment bank now foresees consecutive cuts in July, September and Novembercompared to its previous prognosis of two cuts (in June and December), he said in a note on Sunday.
It anticipates an increase of 15 percentage points in tariff ratesa situation previously considered a “risk case”, but now seems more likely with the next announcement of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday.
The bank states that the comments of those responsible for the White House indicate that There is tolerance to a short -term economic weakness in order to achieve its objectives.
Recession: Is it a possible path for the US?
Now it expects A 12 -month recession probability of 35%compared to its previous 20%estimate. The Federal Reserve maintained its reference interest rate at 4.25-4.50% in March, and its president, Jerome Powell, pointed out an uncertainty and “unusually high” challenges in economic projections due to the recent changes in Trump administration measures.
The Personal Consumer Expenditure Price Index (PCE)the preferred price indicator of the Fed, It increased 0.3% in February after advancing 0.3% not reviewed in January, they showed the data on Friday.
Goldman Sachs also reduced its growth forecast of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the fourth quarter to 1.0% and increased its end -of -year unemployment rate at 4.5%. “We continue to believe that the risk of tariffs on April 2 is greater than what many market participants had previously assumed,” he added.
Source: Ambito
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