Investment opportunities: Given the uncertainty and volatility of the dollar, the appetite grows by the ONS

Global uncertainty leads investors to rethink their strategies. While financial giants like the Bank of America (Bofa) and Barclays They are cautious in the face of the risks inherent to shares and exposure to volatile markets such as the Argentine, Increase asset appetite such as negotiable obligations and other instruments considered less risky.

This movement is also reflected in the local market, where Argentines put aside the volatility associated with the actions -el s & p Merval retreated almost 8% in the first trimester- And the bonds in dollars –The country risk rose from its minimum of January 9 45.71%-to turn to corporate creditswhich offer greater security in a challenging context.

And as well indicates Econviews In its last “Midweek”, the market already assumes that the exchange rate will gain more flexibility and that the exchange gap will rise a step, while the Central Bank (BCRA) extends reservations liquidation without the exchange pressure.

The “driver” waiting for the market

Close an agreement with International Monetary Fund (IMF) “It becomes urgent to clear uncertainties about the exchange scheme. The more it takes, the more the situation can be complicated and much is still very missing for the elections,” analyzes the consultant for Miguel Ángel Kiguel.

In this regard, Agustín BilinskisDirector of Business Development of VT Marketsin statements to Scopecelebrates that although the specific conditions of the agreement were not yet detailed, the Minister of Economy, Luis CaputoHe dismissed rumors about a possible devaluation of the weight. He explains that this would bring mixed effects: he can improve the competitiveness of exports, but generates inflationary pressures and affects the purchasing power of Argentines.

Then, for now there are “drivers” that clarify the exchange scenario and ensure the continuity of the economic program. That’s why, the flow of investments broken towards safer assets like the Negotiable obligations (ONS).

THE ONS UNDER THE JUPA DE LA CITY

Gustavo Neffapartner of Research For TradersHe explains that these days investors sought greater coverage in the market. At the local level, this is reflected in the fall of the sovereign bondswhat he directed “A flow to more conservative investments. In this context, the dollars in dollars have seen a decrease in their rates, while there is also a greater interest in the ONS ”.

Neffa mentions the successful exchange of IRSAwhich extended maturities until 2028 and issued a new on expiration in 2035. The company managed to place a bonus for US $ 300 million to 10 years and an annual rate. “For the closure of the operation there were more than 10,000 interested investors. The issuance reached a diversified investment with international offers of subscribers from the US, Europe, Asia, Latin America and, of course, Argentina,” they said from the group.

However, for Ignacio Muruafinancial advisor of QuickTrade SBS, While the flow that abandons Argentine risk assets “would not seem to be going to Ons,” the idea makes enough sense.

The negotiable obligations that seduce the market

Murua argues that in the corporate level The investor can find first -line emitters loans as YPFwhich yield above 7% in hard currency with a duration of less than five years (Punctually the ON YPF 2029, which lies between 7% and 7.3%).

For investors with greater capacity and desire to extend duration in portfolios, The ON +2030 stands out of the same issuerwith yields above 8%. “We understand that the Argentine corporate credit market is solvent and has adequate interest rates when we look comparable from the region or developed countries,” says the strategist.

“Our investment strategy focuses on the energy sector, particular oil, natural gas and utilitiessince they represent the market core at this time, “he says NEFFA. Among the safest options, although with lower yields, the specialist highlights companies with solid foundations such as Arcor, Pampa and Pan American Energy.

In terms of risk-return, YPF is particularly attractivewith ON in 2029, 2031 and 2033, prioritizing those of 2029 and 2031 for their pull and attractive coupon. After the recent exchanges, there have been multiple broadcasts with expiration in 2031as the case of TGS and others on with an interesting duration to include in portfolio, explains Neffa.

The ONS recommended by sectors

Petroleum sector

• YPF: 9.0% 2029 (YMCIO), 8.75% 2031 (YMCXO), 7.0% 2033 (YMCJO)
• Pan American Energy: 7.0% 2029 (PN350)
• CGC: 9.5% 2025 (CP170)
• Energy view: 7.65% 2031 (VSCRO)
• Tecpetrol: 6.8% 2029 (TTC90)
• Aconcagua oil company: 9.0% 2028 (PECGD)

Natural gas sector

Energy sector

• Pampa Energy: 7.5% 2027 (MGC10)
• Genneia: 8.75% 2027 (GNCXO)
• Edenor: 9.75% 2026 (DNC30)

Real Estate Sector and Construction

• IRSA: 8.75% 2028 (IRCFO)

• Telecommunications sector

• Telecom Argentina: 8.5% 2025 (TLC50), 9.5% 2031 (FTA)

• Infrastructure sector

• Airports Argentina 2000: 8.5% 2031 (ARC10)

• Food sector

• Arcor: 8.25% 2027 (RCCJO)

• Cresud: 8.0% 2026 (CS380)

Thus, in a context of extreme volatility and negative yields in other assetsthe ONS They are presented as an attractive alternative for investors looking Predictible profitability and lower risk compared to other “Assets”.