According to the renowned economist, the key is in exchange policy. The four possible scenarios that you imagine.
The economist Ricardo Arriazu, Founding partner of Arriazu Macroanalistas, analyzed the impact of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) In Argentina’s exchange policy and raised four possible scenarios for the evolution of the dollar in the coming months.
During a conference organized by SYC Investments, Arriazu explained the alternatives that the Government could take in relation to the current strategy of the 1% monthly Crawling. “The key is in exchange policy. There are four possible scenarios. One is to keep 1%. Another is to get half the year halfway, which is what I favor. Another is to devalue, that I already tell you that it has zero probability. And the other is that they float with a band to make the Monetary Fund happy, which would be stupid for me, ”said the economist.
The four scenarios for the exchange rate
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Continuity of the Crawling PE of 1% monthly: This option would maintain the current devaluation rate of the official dollar, which went from 2% to 1% in February 2025 after the initial correction of December 2023.
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Reduction of the rhythm of devaluation to 0.5% monthly: This alternative, which Arriazu considers the most favorable, would seek to reduce pressure on prices without discouraging foreign exchange.
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Abrupt devaluation: The economist flatly ruled out this possibility, ensuring that his probability of occurrence is “zero.”
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Flotation with exchange bands: For Arriazu, this option could be well seen by the IMF, but considers that it is not viable in the current context. “As long as the dollar is an account unit, you cannot float, because any exchange rate movement causes a problem,” he explained.
The debate on exchange flotation
The economist Juan Carlos de Pablo also referred to the possibility of changes in the exchange regime based on the new agreement with the IMF. According to his vision, the “administered flotation is a partial pregnancy,” and recommended that the exchange rate be completely floating, without bands or restrictions. “If a band is announced, people will discuss,” he said, emphasizing that the key remains the fiscal balance.
In this context, the market remains attentive to government definitions on the exchange strategy, while the dollar and inflation continue to mark the country’s economic agenda.
Source: Ambito
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