The oil prices collapsed up to 7% this Friday and played minimum from 2021, after China increased tariffs on US products, abruptly intensifying a world trade war that has investors concerned with a recession.
China announced that additional 34% tariffs will impose To all American products from April 10. Nations around the world have prepared reprisals after Trump raised tariff barriers to their highest level in more than a century.
Raw materials, such as natural gas, soybeans and gold also collapsed, as well as world bags. The investment bank JP Morgan said that he now sees a 60% chance of an economic recession World Cup this year, compared to the previous 40%.
Brent’s futures fell 5.9%, au $ 65.98 per barrel. On the other hand, the futures of the American crude west Texas Intermediate lost 6.9%, Au $ S62.34.
In the minimum of the session, the Brent fell to U $ S64.03 and the WTI AU $ S60.45, Values not seen for four years. Both references suffered their greater weekly losses in more than two years.
“In my opinion, the crude approaches its fair value until we have some indication of how much demand has really been reduced.”said Scott Shelton, United ICAP energy specialist. “I think we will probably end in the 50 dollars average or high in the short term for the WTI, very violently”he added, warning that demand would suffer in the current market circumstances.
The new Trump tariffs are “higher than expected” And the economic consequences, including greater inflation and slower growth, will probably also be, the president of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, said on Friday, in comments that pointed to the potentially difficult decisions that are coming for the Central Bank.
The decision of the organization of oil exporting countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, If progress in its production increase plans has contributed to mass sales of crude. The group has proposed to reintroduce 411,000 barrels per day (BPD) in May, compared to the 135,000 BPDs above.
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) also influenced prices, since a Russian court ruled that its facilities of the Black Sea Export Terminal should not be suspended. This decision could avoid a possible drop in production and oil supply of Kazakhstan.
Oil: Goldman Sachs projection
Goldman Sachs predicted that Brent’s average price will reach $ 69 per barrel and the WTI will be $ 66 by the end of 2025with new falls up to 62 and 59 dollars in 2026. These estimates are 4 dollars lower than the average prices planned according to the 2026 futures curve.
Goldman Sachs warned that the risks for these revised forecasts tend down, especially for next year, due to global economic pressures and geopolitical uncertainty, which could affect oil demand expectations.
Source: Ambito
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