Claudio Zuchovicki explained the collapse of the markets and anticipated the impact on Argentina

The economist Claudio Zuchovicki analyzed the recent crisis of the global markets and attributed the escalation of commercial tensions initiated by Donald Trump to an internal need of the United States: Lower the interest rate in a record indebtedness context. “The United States needs the rate to fall, yes or yes,” he said.

Zuchovicki explained that both the US state and its citizens face Historical levels of debtwhich makes high rates into a direct threat to fiscal sustainability. “If the rate rises, the purchasing power of Americans falls strongly. That is why the pressure to lower it is increasingly urgent,” he said.

A commercial war at the service of internal policy

For the analyst, Trump does not act irrationalitybut responds to a political logic consistent with his campaign speech. “I didn’t think I was going to get so far. I thought I was going to negotiate, as it did with Mexico or Canada. But he said it in campaign and won the elections with that speech,” he said.

Zuchovicki also analyzed the magnitude of the stock market, which in some indexes reached a third in a few days. “Trust has been building for 20 years and demolish in a second. This fall reflects that investors no longer see an isolated event, but a prolonged conflict,” he said.

How does it impact Argentina?

Consulted by the consequences for the country, Zuchovicki said the impact It will not be homogeneous. Some sectors, such as textile or the Foodthey could be harmed if China decides redirect exports to markets such as the Argentine Before the closing of access to the US, “China will want to put more products here because you will not be able to sell there,” he explained.

However, he also pointed out that they could open Opportunities in export sectorsprovided that they can take advantage of the dislocation of global trade.

Fiscal surplus and agreement with the IMF: resilience signals

Unlike other external crises, Argentina Better stopsaccording to the economist. Highlighted the Fiscal surplus as a key factor in reducing dependence on external financing. In addition, he considered that the agreement with the IMF is A positive signalalthough its effect on the exchange rate is limited in the short term.

“The agreement with the fund is good news, not because it controls the dollar, but because supporting weight”, He said in statements to LN+.

Finally, Zuchovicki warned that Trump’s decisions must be understood as the internal logic of American politics. Although that strategy may have a cost in terms of global credibilitythe objective is clear: “Relieve the debt load going down rateseven at the cost of generating an international financial tremor. ”