From this Monday the stage changes in the exchange market and Argentina officially enters the “Phase 3”. On the international stage, the Fed and the ECB will mark the course.
The Argentina approaches the “day D”. After a year and four months of government, the Ministry of Economy announced the long -awaited departure from the exchange rate that will be official as of this Monday.
From tomorrow, change the stage in the exchange market. Although the general expectation is that there will be no shocks and that the dollar would remain closer to the floor than from the band of the band, No one rules out an initial leap in the price. This movement could locate to the ticket in values similar to those that showed financial exchange rates in recent weeks, that is, above $ 1,300. Even if it is in that value, as is located within the bands of $ 1,000 to $ 1,400, there would be no intervention. But if you get to touch the roof or even overcome it, BCRA intervention is planned.
To contain a possible “overshooting” (abrupt exchange of the exchange rate), on the next wheels it is expected Extraordinary currency income that increases the offer and therefore stabilizes the exchange rate price.
Bonds and Actions: Optimism in the City after the exit of the stocks
In the financial market, The expectation is that the lifting of the stock becomes the new driver that drives bonds in dollars, along with the possibility that the Central Bank resumes the purchase of reservations. This combo could favor a rise in title prices and, consequently, a Country Risk Low.
As for the actions, A positive scenario is anticipated for both the local market and for ADRs They quote in New York. The elimination of exchange restrictions is seen as good news for companies, especially for the energy sector, where Oil companies appear as the main beneficiaries for the greatest freedom to turn profits and operate in a more predictable market.
“With these changes the bet is clear: to give a coup of trust, Strengthen the external position to buy currencies again, and lower the country risk to more reasonable levels that allow refinancing the debt. This last point is not less: since the arrival of Milei more than US $ 15,000 million were already paid to multilateral bonds and organisms. Without access to external financing, the accounts do not close, especially with the heavy maturities that come in the coming years, “they said from Econviews.
Short week, intense agenda: what key data does the market expect
For Holy Week holidays, the local market will operate only three business days this week. Despite this, key data is expected until Wednesday, while the international market will operate normally until Thursday.
In the US, one of the keys to the agenda is that we will have in the Meeting on interest rates of the European Central Bankwhich arrives in a Moment of great uncertainty Given the possible economic effects derived from the Commercial War started by Donald Trump.
Monday
- INDEC will spread its patent rates in the first quarter of 2025.
- The Treasury will take its first tender for the month of April.
- Corporate Balances: Goldman Sachs.
Tuesday
- The Ministry of Economy will publish its monthly Public Debt Report of March.
- Corporate Balances: Bank of America, Johnson & Johnson, Citigroup.
Wednesday
- INDEC will announce the March Price Index system (SIPM).
- INDEC will publish the March Cost Index (ICC) of 2025.
- INDEC will report on the Argentine commercial exchange (ICA) of March.
- The Ministry of Economy will announce the fiscal result of March 2025.
- IPC March United Kingdom.
- IPC March Early Eurozone.
- Retail sales March United States
- Jerome H. Powell conference, president of the Federal Reserve, at the Chicago Economic Club.
Thursday
- Meeting on interest rates Banco Central Europe.
- Corporate balance: American Express and Netflix.
Source: Ambito
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