With the departure of the stocks, as of this Monday the real estate market will begin operating based on the Official dollarwithin the new exchange band established between $ 1,000 and $ 1,400and no longer with the MEP dollar as a reference, as was the case under the previous regime.
One of the immediate effects of this modification would imply that distortions between the reference values, which could Facilitate transactions, provide greater predictability to buyers and sellers, and boost the mortgage credit.
The previous context already showed a clear rebound: only in the city of Buenos Aires, the sale operations grew 94% year -on -yearand the Mortgage credits They represented the 22% of the total, that is, 6.3 times more That a year ago. In parallel, the grape adjustable mortgage loans showed a monthly rise in the 13.2% In March, exceeding the growth of 10.3% Registered in February, according to data from First Capital Group.
Before this new scenario, The expectations within the real estate sector are high. “The departure of the CEPO is a positive impact news. While we have to wait for its evolution and be cautious, the demand for sale of real estate will not go down; on the contrary, it will continue to rise as until now,” said Alejandro Bennazar, director of institutional relations of the real estate chamber.
He added: “If the economy really transforms into bimonary and the differences between a formal and an informal dollar disappear, it can even benefit those who take credits and give more security to the sellers. Until now, the message is very positive and the sector receives it with good expectations.”
“As the first point -and not less -the elimination of the stock is a return to some normality in which Argentines can acquire dollars more easily. This provides transparency and simplifies operations. In addition, it offers predictability and, therefore, it will allow greater foreign investment directly in real estate projects and also indirectly, through the funding of financial entities and the possibility that the mortgage credit will increase. That the mortgage credit is reactivated and that real estate operations are accelerated, “Agustín Celia, founder of Lendar, contributed.
Inflation: The impact on tenants and new credit makers
In addition to the impact of the exit of the exchange rate, A new dilemma for three key groups within the real estate market arises: Those who are evaluating a mortgage loan, those who already have it in force and the tenants. In all cases, there is a common factor that continues to condition decisions: Inflation.
The same Friday, before the surprising announcement of the new exchange regime, INDEC reported that the consumer price index (CPI) registered a rise in the 3.7% in Marchabove 2.4% February. With this data, The accumulated inflation in the first quarter of the year reaches 8.6%.
This variable becomes central to analyzing the impact of the new economic scenario on adjustable grape loans, rental values and payment capacity of those who are thinking of buying a property.
What will happen to rentals?
The Inflation remains the main variable for those who are involved in the real estate market, Beyond the length of the stocks. With the rise in inflation recorded in March, and the possibility of an increase in prices after the change of monetary regime (although subsequent stabilization is expected), there are indications that inflation will remain about 2% for a good time, if it does not reach other values around 3%. This will impact the Rentals adjusted by CPI, which will see an increase in their value.
On the other hand, rentals that are adjusted by the Location Contract Index (ICL) will also feel the effect. It is relevant to remember that the ICL is calculated taking into account both the CPI and the average taxable remuneration of the stable workers (Ripte), which will generate an increase in this index and, consequently, in the value of the rentals.
If the contract was signed under the law sanctioned in July 2020, the adjustment is made annually according to the Index for Location Contracts (ICL) published by the Central Bank. Rental contracts with annual update according to the ICL maintain their adjustment scheme until its expiration, even after the repeal of the rental law in December 2023. In April, these rentals increased by 116.85% compared to the previous yeardue to an increase in the index, which went from 10.8% to 23.42%.
“I see an indirect impact on rentals. The band system will cause the exchange rate to be closer to the upper band. A covert devaluation. If that is transferred at prices, which is most likely, it will have an impact on all contracts tied to inflation,” said Federico Zirulnik, economist of the cessation (Center for Economic and Social Studies Scalabrini Ortiz).
“The tenants The last thing we stop paying is the rent. What will happen is that it is expensive. What brings the liberation of the stocks is more inflation and therefore the life of the tenants will be complicated. The data is very clear. There was an increase in increase and in the disaggun Bolten, organization for the right to housing.
How the new credits regime impacts
While mortgage loans are showing positive evolution, the recent increase in inflation begins to generate doubts between those who already have an current one and also among those who evaluate access to a new line. Most of the banks today offer grape -adjusted credits, which implies that before an inflation rise, the quotas are also increased.
In this context, the economist Andrés Salinas He recommended carefully analyzing the moment of entry. “The key to the grape is not to think about the short term. You have to enter with a backward dollar, cheap properties and low real salaries – all with recovery margin – and go out in moments of appreciation of the peso,” he analyzed before the scope consultation.
In addition, he pointed out that in periods of weight depreciation, many people choose to proclaim credit. This is because the UVA index adjusts with a 45 -day lag regarding inflation, So in a month of strong price rise, the fee is not immediately updated, giving a small tactical advantage to those who can cancel in advance or even advance the fees, what is called, early amortization.
Source: Ambito
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