The National Bank was the first to move the file after the lifting of the stocks: On Monday the annual nominal rate (TNA) rose to 37%, and other entities followed, reaching even 38%. However, the monthly effective rate (TEM) offered by the fixed deadlines is still below the March inflation (3.7%), since it is around 3.1%, which implies a negative real performance.
Since March 2024, andThe central bank deregulated the minimum rates for fixed term depositswhich left at the discretion of each bank the decision on how much to offer for savings in pesos. Even so, the monetary policy rate – which is still the main lighthouse for the financial system— It remains in 29% annual nominal, as the BCRA ratified after announcing the end of exchange restrictions.
Will the BCRA move the reference rate?
In this context, Expectations about an eventual upward adjustment of the reference rate by the BCRAalthough analysts do not foresee it immediately. “It is likely that there is a rise, but later, when the market finishes rearranging the new yields of lecaps and fixed deadlines. The objective will be to contain the Pass-Through at prices and allow the official dollar to continue going down, creating space to repurchase reserves, ”explained operator Gustavo Ber.
“The idea is of a dry square to dominate the exchange issue. A rise in the interest rate is possible, looking for some alignment with market demand and leaving it positive in real terms, I think that 3.7/3.8% could be a desirable value in a transitory way with this context, this inflation and thinking that it does not affect long -term growth,” explained the analyst Federico Glustein, consulted by this means.
At the same time, it is worth noting that yesterday, the short -term LECAPS reflected an increase in their yields, but in the long sections of the curve there was a compression, which suggests a market in full process of adjustment to the new scenario.
The macroeconomic context is key to see the movements of the BCRA: March inflation was 3.7% monthly, above what was projected by most consultants. This reinforces the need for The real rates are positive, not only to sustain the attractiveness of the peso against the dollar, but also to use the interest rate as a central tool in the fight against inflation.
From the Megaqm Stock Exchange Society they pointed out: “Short -term decisions are going to alocate liquidity surpluses and start stretching ‘Duration’, both in fixed rate and in CER instruments. The market is looking for a new balance of nominal and real rates. The ‘Trade-Off’ between dollar rate and the new level of rate in pesos will be decisive. The peso curve shows negative slope again. ”
In this framework, the Central Bank will advance its usual board meeting for Wednesday, due to the Holy Week holiday. There a key decision will be defined: if the reference rate maintains or uploads, a measure that will be decisive for Orient the market in this new stage.
Source: Ambito
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