Journalist: Trump calmed down. He turned back with the “reciprocal” tariffs. And peace returned to the markets. Will it last? After all, it is only a pause for 90 days, the War of Commerce continues.
Gordon Gekko: It will be difficult to resume the intensity of the artillery of the day of liberation.
Q.: Do you think we saw the worst?
GG: Of tariff artillery, yes. But we still do not receive invoices of everything that was made pieces. We saw the anxiety of the markets, and the destruction of trust, but not yet the destruction in the real economy.
Q.: And there is no pause in the dispute with China. Mutual tariffs continued on the rise.
GG: The trade was paralyzed. It is as if he governed an embargo. But Trump also had to reverse with the exception to electronic consumption products, from smartphones to laptops.
Q.: The Apple effect.
GG: Call it as you want. The point is that the president made a strong bet, enlisted all his cannons for the day of liberation and two weeks later, it is clear that he failed to advance in the field. His was a resounding failure. And the damage is huge within the US themselves. That is why he had to suspend the maneuver. Under these conditions, it would be suicidal to reopen the fire. Steps that were planned – such as the sectoral increase in tariffs for the automotive sector – will not take effect again.
Q.: The administration did impose a 10% universal tariff on all imports. I know that now it seems little – after all the dust that was built – but it is not a negligible collection. They will be about 400 billion dollars …
GG: If they remain over a whole year.
Q.: Do you think it will not be possible?
GG: Today everything is in conditional. But it is true that it is not what generates the greatest concern. And the government craves to keep those resources.
Q.: How does the commercial war continue? Or should we say the negotiation for peace, since you think that we saw the worst of hostilities?
GG: If it were for Scott Besent, the Treasury Secretary, the stage of bombing to Mansalva arrived here. He convinced Trump that he was prudent to deassess. The anxiety of the treasure bonds and the skid of the dollar with the long rates raised clearly marked the limit of the tolerable.
Q.: Does Besent to conduct negotiations country by country have a capacity to close this fast discussion and turn the page?
GG: No. It is not even its specific area. They did not consult the offensive either, but under pressure, especially of the entrepreneurs and the desperate financiers, he is the man who imposed Trump to get out of the quagmire. If it were for the treasure, the solution is easy. You have to urgently negotiate two or three private agreements, and show them to serve as a guide for other countries along with the general tension. The problem is that if everything calms down, Trump and the people who advise him on commercial issues will want to return to the load. If Besent closes a very easily “deal”, Trump will want to take another thread. He will think he can squeeze it a little more.
Q.: Financial stability should prevail over the commercial strategy.
GG: If Trump squeezes with the tariffs, and what is destroyed is the dollar and the treasure bonds, he is killing the chicken of the golden eggs, he went from the line. How long were we from a moment Lehman, of a financial disaster? It should not be insisted here. You have to heal the wound. It is urgent to accept that it failed and change the subject.
Q.: And what about China? Jamie Dimon, the JP Morgan CEO, has just suggested that you have to remember quickly with Beijing, that you should not let the conflict climb.
GG: Dimon speaks every day. It looks like a cabinet member.
Q.: The banks presented excellent balance sheets. They are winning fortunes with the increase in trading, but they are rarely seen so worried. What are you afraid?
GG: You can still save the real economy. Employment still grows, the frightened consumer keeps his expense. Retail prices went down in March. And also the import prices, despite the first ten tariff points that Trump applied to China. It is a crime to continue torpeding the foundations of an incredibly solid economy insisting with poorly thought out toxic plans and worse executed. If they do not even hold for ten days and you have to abandon them urgent. The reasonable thing is to completely file these adventures. Which politically is impossible. Well, you have to lower their toxicity and take a triumphant photo with a visible agreement for all, as a trophy. I believe that April’s damage will be large, in activity, expense and inflation, but what is done, is done. You are in time not to aggravate them and overcome the slope.
Q.: Something like that did Trump in 2020 with the rubric of the phase one agreement with Xi Jinping.
GG: Exact. The problem is that at this time Xi Jinping knows that time plays in favor, that the pressing is Trump (as he saw with the exemption of the iPhones), and that can stretch the times. We already notice how the Tik Tok purchase operation is prolonged that Trump wants to close quickly and that the Chinese do not want to realize. However, maintaining the current status quo – a virtual mutual commercial – is too large costs so that an approach does not occur. And if it does not happen because of the personal initiative of the leaders, I fear that the markets force it for the bad ones.
Source: Ambito
I am a 24-year-old writer and journalist who has been working in the news industry for the past two years. I write primarily about market news, so if you’re looking for insights into what’s going on in the stock market or economic indicators, you’ve come to the right place. I also dabble in writing articles on lifestyle trends and pop culture news.
