Investments: After the flexibility of the stocks, what opportunities open to beat the dollar and inflation?

Government execution was applauded by Goldman Sachswhich he pointed out in his latest report on Argentina that what announced by the economic team “He exceeded his expectations”For the bank, Argentina took an important step – and better to the expected – towards a more solid macroeconomic stabilization. Considers that the announced measures can lay the foundations for lasting improvementprovided they are implemented consistency. Finally, it confirms the attractiveness by local financial instruments.

Investments with inflation coverage

The volatility of the environment is also reflected in the strategies of coverage against inflationanalyze megaqm. A prominent fact was the IPC of March, which was 3.7%, added to the effect of the 11.5% jump in the official dollar on the first day of the flotation.

“This scenario caused a Compression in the CER curveespecially in its long section, whose yields have matched those of the rest of the curve. This adjustment encouraged arbitration between instruments adjusted by CER and those referenced in the dollar, consolidating within a context of greater exchange rate flexibility and country risk reduction, ”says Megaqm.

On the other hand, Dollar Linked Instruments demand remains activedespite the release of the exchange rate, says the broker. Thus, reconfiguration in investment strategies was triggered on the local scenario.

Juan José Vázquez, Head of Analysis in Cohen financial alliesslide into dialogue with Scope That, perhaps, it is better to “look inside than.” It happens that the international panorama is complicated. Interest rates are no longer what they were before April and that conditions investors: “We have no certainties about whether the worst already happened outside or if a global recession is coming“, says Vázquez.

And he warns: “However, at the local level the stage is quite good”In fact, after Monday, the strategist claims to feel More comfortable When positioning in the short section of the curve in hard dollar instruments. Particularly, he likes the axis of 2030, although the 2029 can also be an option if something more conservative is sought.

For the most risky adverse who want to go in longer installments, Axis 2038 can be interesting, Vázquez. And it is that the “Spreads” shrink quite ahead of the BOPREALES and the subsoberans. A segment that also offers interesting opportunities, such as COP24D from Córdoba, a bonus that expires in 2027. also the Bopreal 1C maintains its appealthen compress well in front of the sovereigns and in front of the instruments in pesos.

As for CER bonds, there are some that expire in 2025 that for Vázquez They are interesting. For example, the TZXD5 that expires on December 15 and yields Cer +4 and something else. Another alternative is the Tx26.

Debt in pesos vs. Drive in dollars

The analysts of Conosur Investments They pointed out in talk with this medium that there are attractive opportunities in both segments. “Sovereign debt in dollars could offer greater yields In the event that the exchange rate is maintained in the upper half of the band, “they indicate. However, the investments in pesos They have less volatility. Within the sovereign curve in dollars, “we prefer the Medium-Largo sectiondespite the risk of a possible subtack. “

As for the Fixed income in hard currency versus the “equity“, The City broker explains that facing September, with inflation that is higher anticipated, exchange volatility and eventual electoral uncertainty, In addition to a more cautious international context, “they could affect the growth prospects for companies. In this scenario, We favor fixed income in dollars against equity“

Megaqm 1.png

However, to position themselves in that segment and given the potential increase in international flows, they consider reasonable to position themselves in Actions with ADRS. “We favor the Energy sector by solid foundations and Banks For their direct exhibition to the Argentine case, “they analyze.

Finally, from Conosur They mark that it can be a good time to add Negotiable Obligations (ON) To the portfolios. This is based on the fact that analysts foresee a greater compression in the “spread” in front of the sovereigns, “which represents an additional opportunity within the corporate universe“

Time of (back) to add to portfolio Argentine shares

Alan Mac CarthyCEO of Front investments, recalls for its part that the Argentine equity came from a correction in the first quarter close to 30% and now, by the hand of the Phase 3 much of the S&P Merval It could recover part of the lost land: “It is a good time to include local roles in the portfolios of Argentine investors with medium-long term horizon,” says the strategist.

Already in the Fixed Income Universe Mac Carthy highlights the Bonar 2030 (AL30), the Global 2035 (GD35) and Bonar 2038 (AE38). Not only because of the potential for a rise in front of the country risk and the lifting of exchange restrictions, “but because there are also large companies taking position in sovereign bonds, which gives a vote of confidence to the direction that the country takes,” he says.

In the background, the “Carry Trade” appears

So much Vázquez as Mac Carthy They ultimately mentioned to “Carry Trade, who returns to the scene with attractive rates in pesos (LECAP) and coverage against the dollar “.

“Moreover, if we take into account that, at least until May, the nominal exchange rate should be kept relatively stable or move within a range,” concludes Vázquez.

What do investors do right now?

From Megaqm They argue that investment flows are mainly directed Towards coveragewhile in the field of assets in pesos, the accrual. However, the new exchange rate of the exchange rate could modify this dynamic. “The first wheels will probably be analysis and observation, But as investors adaptthey could decide to extend their duration in the assets, ”he concludes.

Thus, a combination of bonds in dollars, CER titles and local actions, together with coverage strategies, would be the best options to optimize yields in this new context that marks the pulse in Argentina today.