The great doubt of the operators is where the dollar in the exchange bands set by the Central Bank, to allow the greatest opening of the restrictions until this Friday. The day -to -day control will be account for the exchange balance that is called Formation of external assetswhich is the one observed To determine whether in the country there is escape or capital income.
In this case, the government of Javier Milei It would have an advantage, since according to some of the referents of the capital market, given the new conditions, the monthly average For the 2024-2025 period, it marks the entry of US $ 200 million per month. It is a big difference with the experience of Mauricio Macri in 2018, which lost US $ 2,000 per month.
With that that data and the contribution of other accounts, in Cohen Argentina They point out that now in more this can be a determinant of the fate of the scheme, provided that public confidence is maintained
Martín Polo, Cohen economist, he said in a talk with investors that “With even we obviously forget what this account was.”
“Then there will be the key. For what I was reading US $ 500 million were already sued (for Monday), Let’s see how the month ends, but Yeah Or it will be the variable to look ”, Pole pointed out.
What are estimates for this year?
In Cohen Argentina they estimate that for the period 2024-2025 the current account will have a positive balance of US $ 833 millions per monthwhile account Goods will leave other US $ 1,557 million.
The accounts that would be slightly negative are: services with US $ 442 million, interests with US $ 262 million; while paying neutral profits and direct foreign investment would have a negative balance of US $ 76 million per month.
On the side of the positive balances are loans, which would leave US $ 1,880 million per month and The F accountOrmation of external assets provides tickets for US $204 million. In short, in balance it would indicate a Income of US $ 3,694 million monthly average.
COMPANIES: The stocks is not fully raised
Polo points out that “the big issue here goes through companies still excluded from this demand for dollars. ” The analyst refers basically to the old debt and the profits of the companies that cannot be sent abroad until the current economic period ends in December 2025. Only in 2026 this year’s profits will be able to send.
On the other hand, an element they estimate It will have to take greater prominence refers to the projects of the incentive regime to large investments (Rigi). In that case, foreign direct investment, which is in negative terms, would have to become positive.
Source: Ambito
I am a 24-year-old writer and journalist who has been working in the news industry for the past two years. I write primarily about market news, so if you’re looking for insights into what’s going on in the stock market or economic indicators, you’ve come to the right place. I also dabble in writing articles on lifestyle trends and pop culture news.
