The financial business that allows returns “without doing anything” and of which analysts already warn

A few days after have the stocks be eliminated and official The new exchange band systemanalysts, international banks and investors clearly outline the Financial play For this scenario: The “Carry Trade”also baptized as “financial bike.”

This mechanism, which had prominence during the first months of Javier Milei’s government, is based on a simple strategy: Sell ​​dollars in a controlled exchange rate context or the declineposition themselves in instruments in pesos that pay interest – like the LECAP – and, finally, repurchase the dollars, generating a Gain superior to other hard currency placements.

In simpler versions, some choose fixed deadlines or common investment funds in pesos. But the final objective is the same: take advantage of the gap between yield in pesos and exchange stability to obtain returns in dollars.

A strategy that returns strongly

The relaunch of the exchange regimewith a Flotation system administered between $ 1,000 and $ 1,400 “A monthly 1%, as provided by the Central Bank,” the financial bicycle put again. Consultants such as Quantum, former Secretary of Finance Daniel Marx, and economists such as the presidential ex -advisor, Carlos Rodríguez, highlight that the conditions are given for resurgence.

“Did the government guarantee in some reliable way that it will not change 1% of the upper band, and the (indexing) limit of $ 1400 either, for a given period of time? Or can devalue 30% (eg) within three months of surprise. It is not critical, but an insured band of 1% with this inflation and rates and prices of today, is a “carry trace” with insured profits, even if you have to stay six months. Unless the rescue allea rises, “Rodríguez slipped into his X account.

From Quantum they analyzed that “the BCRA undertakes to intervene in case The dollar approaches the ends of the band: Buying if it goes too much and selling if you climb the roof “,.

Meanwhile, the treasure instruments in pesos presented, in recent times, yields between a 3% and 3.5% monthly effective. In the light of those numbers, analysts begin to wonder if the “Carry Trade” was profitable. A quantum exercise shows that investing in the T15D5 LECAP – with expiration in December – could show a 12% dollar yield if the exchange rate reaches $ 1,400 at the end of the year. The consultant recommends focusing on short expiration lecaps.

JP Morgan It also adds to this vision: the North American bank suggests positioning in debt in pesos, with predilection for the LECAP with expiration in August 2025. According to their analysts, the local short -term instruments will continue to be attractive, and prefer strategies of “Carry Trade” of low duration.

For his part, Bloomberg shared a report in which they assured that “the risk and return profile of the ‘Carry Trade’ has improved significantly.” According to the full analysis, the upper band of the new exchange scheme can be a shield in front of future currency depreciations.

The plays allowed by the new exchange scheme of Javier Milei

The brand new exchange regime also enables new strategies to make “Carry Trade” with Lecap, Treasury bonds at a fixed rate. Specialists recommend an active logic: take advantage of the dollar movements inside the band to enter and leave at the right time.

The tactic consists of buying Lecaps when the dollar is close to the floor ($ 1,000- $ 1,100) and sell them to dollarize When the price approaches to the ceiling ($ 1,300- $ 1,400). Thus, the return in dollars is maximized, taking advantage of the margins of the band.

This scheme allows you to estimate minimal yields for dollars for LECAP or BONCAP, depending on the entrance exchange rate and under the assumption of a conservative scenario in which the official dollar ends the year at $ 1,000.

If the exchange rate moves effectively towards the floor, the dollarized returns are enhanced. Logic can also be applied with CER bonds, although the inflation component hinders exact flow forecast.

One of the instruments that could give more in this context is the Tzx25 bancer (June 2025), which could overcome the LECAP S30J5 for the effect of April inflation on its tight payments.