Specifically, since last Monday -first validity of the new dollar scheme -the Blue yielded 16.4%, MEP 17.1%and CCL 16.7%. In turn, the officer, who had climbed 11% or $ 120 on that day, Since then, a decrease of $ 104 or 8.7%records. In that context, The gaps are between 9% and 4%.
According to City analysts, the abrupt drops mainly due to An excess of supply in the market and the decision of the Central Bank (BCRA) to refrain from buying currencies until the exchange rate reaches the floor of the flotation band, set at $ 1,000.
So it is that this Monday the MEP dollar becomes cheaper than the Official retailer: The first came to drill the $ 1,110 (It touched an intradiary minimum of $ 1,104, and then bouncing at $ 1,120), while the second yielded to $ 1,114.83. In that context, the dollar bag is the one that shows the lowest gap with the wholesaler, around 2.3%.
However, after the debut of the new exchange regime and partial lifting of the stocks, the Blue He gave up a 16.4%he MEP 17.1% and the CCL, 16.7%. He wholesalermeanwhile, there was only a 1.48%.
Causes of the decline of the official dollar
On the first day of debut of the new exchange regime, the president Javier Milei confirmed that Withholdings to the field will rise again in Junesince the temporary leave was until that month. In that line, he recommended the field to liquidate the harvest before that date.
“To traditional exports we have temporarily lowered the withholdings, but we said that they were transitory measures. So in June, the withholdings rise again. Notice to the field that if they have to liquidate, they liquidate now, because in June they return to retention.”said the president.
Despite the discomfort for the president’s sayings, Agroexporters liquidated US $ 478 million during last week. However, the price of soy And of the rest of the Commodities They have been deflating, added to an exchange rate, currently, also very low. During this Monday’s wheel, the wholesale dollar came to drill Friday prior to the new exchange rate regime ($ 1,060 vs. $ 1,078).
“There is more agro liquidation due to government pressure on the replacement of retentions. It was successful, since sales increased in context of harvest gross And he gave dynamism to the market, “he said in dialogue with Scope The economist Federico Glustein.
On the liquidated quantity, the specialist said that “it is up to date with the liquidation newspaper that was with the thick of good years previous, where they were settled at a rate of US $ 180 million per day.”
In addition to the excess supply product of harvest settlement, “for now a very solid demand is not exhibited and consequently prices fall,” he said Gustavo Quintana, of PR CHANGE OPERATORS.
Blue, MEP and CCL dollar: why they sink
Additionally to the Agro settlementthere is also a key variable in the Fixed term interest rate That, after the Suspension of active passes operationhe discouraged the possibility of receiving deposits from the banks in exchange for titles, which generated that the rates hit a jump.
“What is seen is that the market is confident that the BCRA has achieved sufficient firepower to defend weight in the new band scheme,”he said Andrés Reschiniwho also stressed that “The foreign investment interest was aroused, to whom access to the market was flexible”.
“As if that were not enough, the BCRA keeps the tap of active passes closed and this keeps the rates in more attractive pesos,” reschini completed.
The blue dollar collapsed $ 100 and touched $ 1,050 and the gap was 5.1%. It is its lowest value in nominal terms in the last four months. Meanwhile, the MEP gave 4% a $ 1,120, and the CCL 3.6% fell $ 1,135.
Another factors that also explains the wide offer of dollars is the “Carry Trade” In which foreign investors were now incorporated, after access to the change free market (MLC) was enabled for non -residents.
The issuance of the Bopreal For him “Retaining Utilities Tour” -Gananances that were not distributed in dividends- of the companies, which absorbs the weights of the market.
In that line, the officer could descend to $ 1,000, lower price of the band and value in which the BCRA will intervene; while the MEP could stabilize with a minimum gap of 2% and the CCL and Blue around 5%, according to the economist Gustavo Ber.
Beyond the tangible arguments that led to dollars collapsed, there is also “a general confidence shock that achieves a substantial reduction in future and present dollar values,” Glustein concluded.
Source: Ambito
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